European PMIs Surprise to upside

As the overall EU PMI was released, the market used that opportunity to sell Euros

With all the possible recession talk over the past few weeks, it was nice to see a glimmer of sunshine in the European Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), especially from the Germany, the powerhouse of the European Union The DAX pared losses. However, for the Euro, the excitement was brief.  Although the data was better than expected, it still remains well below 50.

ALL the PMI data from the EU came in better than expected:


As the data was released, notice how the EUR/USD bid up, in hopes that the next country’s data to be released would be better than expected as well.  However, once the overall EU PMI was released, the market used that opportunity to sell Euros and buy US Dollars.  (I’ll let the short-term price action speak for itself).

Source: Tradingview,

With only Initial Jobless Claims and the US PMI data left on todays calendar, it appears the market may be gearing up for the possibility of a less dovish Powell tomorrow when he speaks at Jackson Hole,  as the FOMC July 31st minutes released yesterday were also taken as less dovish.  

In the meantime, watch for resistance in the EUR/USD near today’s high at 1.1113, and then at horizonal resistance near 1.1160.  Support comes in at 1.1030, which was the August 1st low and they 161.8% Fib extension from the August 15th 2018 low to the September 21st 2018 high.  Below that, there is room down to trendline support near 1.0900!


Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Open an Account