Bitcoin has consolidated one of its strongest sessions in months, registering a gain of more than 6% today alone, allowing it to reclaim levels above 90,000 dollars per BTC. For now, the bullish bias has strengthened on the back of a renewed appetite for Bitcoin following the prolonged decline of recent weeks, along with growing appetite for risk assets, supported by expectations of a more relaxed tone from the U.S. central bank and the typical year-end optimism. If this increased appetite for risk continues to build, buying pressure on BTC could remain relevant over the next several sessions.
Is BTC Demand Returning?
Next week will bring the Federal Reserve’s final decision of the year, and expectations continue to favor a 0.25% rate cut, which would bring the benchmark rate down to 3.75%. This scenario has led to weaker demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar, opening the door for renewed interest in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
The market has begun shifting from a risk-off environment toward a risk-on sentiment, partly due to the well-known Santa Rally, a phenomenon often observed in the crypto market as positions build ahead of the new year. Seasonal institutional rebalancing also frees up liquidity, encouraging increased exposure to higher-risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Additionally, the perception that the recent selloff may have been “too aggressive” has helped revive optimism in the market. The Open Interest indicator, which measures the total number of open futures positions, has shown a steady rise toward 29.2 billion dollars. This increase, combined with BTC’s price rebound, suggests that buying positions have begun to accumulate, outpacing selling positions and signaling greater institutional interest in the short term.
Source: Coinmarketcap
On the retail side, activity has also increased: in recent sessions, the number of active BTC addresses has climbed to 851.43k, indicating higher user activity within the network. This suggests growing retail participation in the short term, which can often translate into rising demand as BTC price recovers.
Source: Coinmarketcap
Altogether, both institutional and retail indicators point toward strengthening demand for BTC, especially as safe-haven assets show weakness and investors seek greater exposure to risk. If this trend persists, buying pressure may continue to dominate BTC movements in the coming sessions.
Bitcoin Technical Outlook
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
- Downtrend Still Holding: Since the highs reached in early October, Bitcoin has maintained a dominant bearish bias, shaping a medium-term downward trendline. Although today’s recovery signals a stronger short-term bullish impulse, this move alone remains insufficient to break the broader bearish structure. If buying pressure fails to remain consistent, the downtrend is likely to continue dominating price action in the near term.
- RSI: The RSI has begun to show a steady positive slope, approaching the neutral 50 level. If it manages to break above this threshold, it would signal dominant bullish momentum, potentially supporting more consistent buying pressure on BTC.
- MACD: The MACD maintains a histogram above the zero line, indicating that short-term moving-average strength remains in bullish territory. If the histogram continues to rise, it could reinforce a stronger buying impulse over the coming sessions.
Key Levels:
- 100,000 – Major Resistance: This is the primary bullish barrier, aligning with a price retracement zone observed in June and the descending trendline formed in recent weeks. A move toward—and a potential breakout above—this level could end the bearish trend and initiate a dominant bullish bias toward year-end.
- 90,500 – Nearby Barrier: A neutrality level observed in recent sessions. As long as price remains near this zone, a short-term sideways range could develop.
- 80,300 – Final Support: This marks the most important round-number level in the short term, aligned with 2025 lows. A break below this zone could sustain an aggressive bearish trend in the sessions ahead.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
Follow him at: @julianpineda25
