Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Halts Bearish Price Series
AUD/USD halts the recent series of lower highs and lows as it rebounds from a fresh weekly low (0.6408).
Share this:
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD
AUD/USD halts the recent series of lower highs and lows as it rebounds from a fresh weekly low (0.6408).
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Halts Bearish Price Series
Keep in mind, AUD/USD cleared the December high (0.6515) earlier this week as it registered a fresh yearly high (0.6537), and the exchange rate may attempt to retrace the decline from the November high (0.6688) should it continue to defend the V-shape recovery from last month.
Australia Economic Calendar
Looking ahead, the update to Australia’s Retail Sales report may sway AUD/USD as household spending is expected to increase another 0.3% in April, and a positive development may push the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to the sidelines following the decision to lower the cash rate by 25bp earlier this month.
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.
David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here
In turn, signs of a robust economy may fuel the recent rebound in AUD/USD as it curbs speculation for another RBA rate-cut, but a weaker-than-expected Retail Sales report may drag on the Australian Dollar as it puts pressure on Governor Michele Bullock and Co. to further unwind its restrictive policy.
With that said, AUD/USD may consolidate going into the end of May should it fail to defend the advance from the weekly low (0.6408), but the exchange rate may continue to defend the V-shape recovery from April as it bounces back ahead of the monthly low (0.6357).
AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
- AUD/USD bounces back ahead of the monthly low (0.6357) to snap the bearish price series from earlier this week, and the exchange rate may stage a larger rebound amid the failed attempt to close below 0.6410 (50% Fibonacci extension).
- Need a close above the 0.6510 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6520 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) region to bring 0.6590 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around November high (0.6688).
- At the same time, a close below 0.6410 (50% Fibonacci extension) may lead to a test of the monthly low (0.6357), with the next area of interest coming in around 0.6240 (61.8% Fibonacci extension).
Additional Market Outlooks
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Snaps Rebound from May Low
GBP/USD Holds Below February 2022 High for Now
Gold Price Falls as Trump Delays EU Tariff
USD/JPY Approaches Monthly Low as Trump Plans 50% Tariff for Europe
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on X at @DavidJSong
Related tags:
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
USD/CAD forecast: rally could accelerate above June highs at 1.4250
USD/CAD recovered quickly after weaker US jobs data, keeping the bullish trend in focus. A move above the June highs could accelerate the rally as inflation keeps the Fed under pressure.
Dow Jones Slide Shows What Rate Hike Bets Mean for Stocks
The Dow Jones support breakdown shows rising bond yields and rate hike bets hitting U.S. stocks while tech giants prop up the Nasdaq.
EUR/USD forecast remains tilted lower with French bond troubles ahead of US jobs report
The EUR/USD has tagged a fresh year-to-date low as French public-finance concerns trigger a government bond sell-off. Today's US jobs report may change little, with resilient activity, elevated energy prices and hawkish Fed bets keeping the greenback supported. With the pair trapped below resistance at 1.1410, the risk to the near-term EUR/USD forecast is tilted to the downside.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.