Commitment of traders report (COT): 17th April 2023

 

Commitment of traders – as of Tuesday 11^th April 2023:

• Net-long exposure to euro futures rose to a 7-week high (just below its 25-month high)
• Traders increased net-short exposure to AUD futures by 10.7k contract (+39%)
• Net-short exposure to the US 10-year now fell to its third most bearish level on record
• Net exposure to CAD futures remained just off 4-year lows
• GBP futures are on the cusp of reverting to net-long exposure

 

Commitment of traders – British pound futures (GBP):

British pound futures were on the cusp of flipping to net-long exposure last week, with gross longs increasing for a second week whilst gross shorts declined. Whether it can move to net-long exposure this week is likely down to UK wage and employment data on Tuesday and inflation on Wednesday. Flash PMI data for the US and Friday could also play its hand.

 

 

Commitment of traders – Euro dollar futures (EUR):

Large speculators pushed EUR/USD futures to a 7-week high, which is just below its 2.5-year high. The ECB continue to make hawkish sounds amongst the ranks, so if we see improvements with Tuesday’s ZEW economic report, inflation on Wednesday and a hot PMI on Friday then perhaps it can push higher. With that said, Fed members remain hawkish even though markets are trying to goad the Fed into cuts later this year, and as EUR/USD has risen for seven consecutive weeks and stumbled around 1.10 (and below the March 2020 high), we suspect upside potential for EUR/USD could be limited unless we see a net-positive for euro data this week coupled with a soft US PMI and rising jobless claims.

 

 

Commitment of traders – as of Tuesday 11^th April 2023:

• Net-long exposure to silver futures rose to a 10-week high
• Managed funds increased net-long exposure to a 7-week high
• Palladium futures remained near their most bearish level on record for a third week
• Managed funds were their most bullish on WTI crude oil futures in 8 months