DAX Holds Below 24,400 as Momentum Cools, CPI Eyed

🌍 Global Markets & Trade Tensions

• Asian equities rose, but U.S. futures slipped and the dollar hit a 6-week low due to ongoing trade tensions and weak manufacturing data from both the U.S. and China.
• Investors await a possible call between President Trump and Xi Jinping as the U.S. seeks final trade offers before a looming tariff deadline.
• Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, prompting EU retaliation threats and market volatility.
• U.S. manufacturing (ISM) contracted further in May to 48.5, with import and export indices dropping sharply, signaling trade war impact.

 

💶 Europe & ECB Outlook

• European shares opened slightly higher, awaiting May CPI data.
• ECB is expected to cut rates later this week, supporting sentiment.
• Germany's CPI data showed inflation at 2.1%, with food prices rising and energy prices falling.
• Greece’s manufacturing PMI rose to 53.2, indicating expansion, with rising orders and employment.

 

DAX Technical Analysis 4H

The Germany 40 (DAX) CFD – 4H chart shows the index trading at 23,888.5 (+0.04%), continuing to range below the key resistance level of 24,393.0. Despite maintaining a bullish structure overall, the price is showing loss of momentum with repeated rejections below resistance and a flattening of moving averages.

🔍 Technical Breakdown:

• EMA Configuration:
• Price remains above all key EMAs (20, 50, 100, 200), but the 20 EMA (23,990) is starting to flatten, showing loss of upside acceleration.
• The 50 EMA (23,980.5) and 100 EMA (23,767) are acting as support, helping to maintain structure for now.
• Price Action:
• The DAX has been range-bound between ~23,800 and ~24,400 since mid-May.
• Recent candles show lower highs and small-bodied candles, suggesting indecision or mild distribution.

 

📊 Momentum Indicators:

• RSI (14) is at 43.88, trending lower — a bearish divergence from price.
• Stochastic RSI is rising but remains beneath overbought (39.64 / 60.85) — pointing to neutral-to-slight upside but not strong.

 

📌 Key Levels:

Resistance:

• 🔵 24,393.0 – strong horizontal resistance; still unbroken
• 🔺 Above that: potential expansion toward 24,600–24,800

Support:

• 🟡 23,800–23,750 – 20 EMA and near-term structure support
• 🟠 23,310–23,158 – 200 EMA and prior breakout zone
• 🔵 20,474 / 20,193.5 – macro support levels

⚠️ Outlook:

The DAX remains technically bullish, but the failure to break out above 24,393 along with weakening momentum suggests a possible short-term pullback or further consolidation. A confirmed breakdown below 23,750 would likely trigger a move to 23,300–23,000. Conversely, a break above 24,393 would resume the rally.

📉 Bias: Neutral-to-bullish
🔍 Watch: 23,750 support or 24,393 breakout zone for next move confirmation.

 

🇺🇸 U.S. Economy & Dollar Movement

• Despite trade tensions, U.S. stocks gained:
• S&P 500 +0.41%, Nasdaq +0.67%
• Consumer confidence improved, boosted by extended tariff exemptions on Chinese goods and stronger sentiment.
• The ISM manufacturing report showed new orders and employment improving slightly, but export orders hit a 5-year low.
• Section 899 of Trump’s tax reform bill proposes higher taxes on foreign investors in the U.S., targeting countries with digital service taxes.
• The dollar weakened to a 5-week low vs. the euro, but rebounded vs. AUD and NZD.

💴 Asia: Japan, China, Australia, and NZ

• Nikkei 225 rose 0.1%; Hang Seng China Enterprises +1.33%; Shanghai Composite +0.42%
• China’s Caixin PMI fell sharply to 48.3, below expectations.
• Bank of Japan’s Governor Ueda warned of inflation and trade risks; JGB auction demand eased concerns.
• RBA minutes revealed readiness to cut rates by 50bps if global trade worsens.
• RBNZ cut rates to 3.25%, signaling further easing into 2026.

🛢️ Commodities

• Oil prices rose, with Brent nearing $65, on OPEC+ supply increases and geopolitical risk.
• Gold held firm amid dollar weakness and trade tensions.
• Bitcoin fell slightly to $104,770, Ethereum down to $2,489.

🇬🇷 Greece’s Growth Story

• Greek manufacturing expanding strongly with high PMI (53.2), boosted by rising orders and hiring.
• The ATHEX index is up ~25% YTD, outperforming most European peers.

🔜 Looking Ahead

• Markets await:
• ECB rate decision (June 5)
• U.S. employment data
• Possible Trump-Xi call
• Fallout from Section 899 on foreign investor sentiment and bond yields

Conclusion: Markets remain cautious amid trade disputes, soft data, and political uncertainty, but strength in sectors like tech and signs of resilience in Europe (especially Greece) offer some optimism.