Global Markets Steady as Fed Meeting Trump Putin Talks and Nvidia Conference Dominate Headlines

Global Markets Steady as Fed Meeting, Trump-Putin Talks, and Nvidia Conference Dominate Headlines

• US stock futures flat as investors await Fed rate decision & economic projections.
• Nvidia’s GTC conference in focus, with CEO Jensen Huang set to unveil the Vera Rubin AI chip.
• Trump-Putin phone call on Ukraine ceasefire could impact geopolitical risk sentiment.
• Oil prices rise following Israeli airstrikes in Gaza and Red Sea tensions.
• Asian markets rally, led by:
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (+2%), hitting a 3-year high on China stimulus optimism.
• Japan’s Nikkei (+1.5%), rebounding from recent losses.
• Gold hits record $3,017/oz as US retail sales miss expectations and inflation concerns persist.

US Focus: Fed Meeting, Retail Sales & Tariff Uncertainty

Fed Policy Decision Tomorrow

Rates expected to remain at 4.5%, with focus on economic projections.

• Fed’s stance on inflation & growth will guide market expectations for future rate cuts.
• US Treasury yields rebounded, reversing earlier losses amid concerns over inflation persistence.

US Retail Sales Weaker Than Expected

• February retail sales (MoM): +0.2% (Expected: +0.6%).
• Control group retail sales (ex-food, autos, fuel): +1.0% (Expected: +0.3%).
• Mixed data suggests underlying consumer spending remains resilient, but growth is slowing.

Trump-Putin Talks on Ukraine Peace Deal

• Trump hinted at discussions on land, power plants & asset division to broker a ceasefire.
• Markets are watching for potential sanctions relief on Russia, which could impact energy & commodity markets.

Nvidia GTC Conference This week: AI & Quantum Innovations Awaited

• CEO Jensen Huang to unveil new AI & quantum computing technologies, including:
• Vera Rubin AI chip.
• Advancements in Sovereign AI & AI agents.
• Automotive AI & robotics breakthroughs.
• Stock is down ~20% from its record high, as investors question AI trade sustainability.
• Impacted stocks: Broadcom, Marvell, Qualcomm, Supermicro.

European Markets Resilient Amid German Borrowing Plan

• EuroStoxx 50 futures +0.35%, DAX +0.43% as Germany’s €500 billion fiscal plan progresses.

Diagram: DAX 1 Day, near all time highs.

UK Economy Slows, BoE Rate Cut Unlikely This Week

• January GDP shrank -0.1%, driven by:
• Industrial production slump (-0.9%).
• Weak manufacturing output.
• BoE expected to keep rates at 4.5%, despite:
• Inflation still above 2% target.
• Markets only pricing in two rate cuts by early 2026.
• Planned UK defense spending increase (2.3% → 2.5% of GDP by 2027) could provide some economic support.

Energy & Commodities: Oil & Gold Surge on Geopolitical Risks

• Brent crude +1.3% to $71.97/barrel | WTI +1.3% to $68.27/barrel.
• Israeli airstrikes in Gaza reignite Middle East tensions, fueling supply concerns.
• Gold hit record $3,017/oz, benefiting from:
• US dollar weakness.
• Uncertainty over Fed policy & inflation trends.

Market Outlook

• US & European equities steady, with AI & geopolitical events in focus.
• Nvidia’s conference could shake up tech stocks, while Fed signals will drive rates & yields.
• Germany’s fiscal plan could support Eurozone growth, boosting DAX & European markets.
• Gold remains strong amid uncertainty, while oil traders watch Middle East & Ukraine tensions.
• Risk sentiment hinges on Fed, Trump-Putin talks, and Nvidia’s AI announcements.