DAX Stalls at 200 EMA, Markets Eye Intel Earnings

Trump on Powell: No Firing Planned

President Trump told reporters he has “no intention of firing” Fed Chair Jerome Powell, despite recently stating online that “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough.” Trump clarified he never seriously intended to remove Powell, whose term runs through May 2026, and simply wants him to be “more active” in lowering interest rates. His comments helped ease recent investor concerns.

Walmart CEO Issues Tariff Warning

Walmart’s CEO warned that Trump’s tariffs could soon lead to empty shelves, with the effects potentially visible within two weeks. The retailer stressed that these disruptions could hit consumers hard, suggesting the trade fight is entering a stage where Trump “can’t ultimately win.”

 

Germany

Business confidence in Germany improved in the first quarter of this year following a historic debt deal to increase defence spending by easing strict rules and establishing a substantial infrastructure fund. The IFO  index rose from 84.7 in December to 86.7 in March, marking its highest level since last July. Sentiment is expected to remain lifted as seen in the forecast of 85.1 for the month of April, which could keep the Euro elevated.

Software giant SAP’s shares surge 10% after first-quarter profit beat: SAP on Wednesday posted a 58% year-on-year jump in first-quarter operating profit in constant currency, also confirming its outlook for full-year cloud revenues. CNBC reports.

DAX Technical Analysis 4 hour

Germany 40 (DAX) CFD – 4H chart shows that the index is stalling just above the 200 EMA, trading at 21,748.9 (-0.03%). After a strong recovery from April lows, the momentum is beginning to slow at a critical resistance zone, suggesting potential consolidation or a pullback.

🔍 Technical Overview:

• Trend structure:
• Price is above all EMAs (20, 50, 100, 200), which are now sloping upward — a bullish signal.
• Momentum fading:
• Recent candles show upper wicks, indicating selling pressure near the highs.
• RSI is rolling off just below overbought territory (~60–65 range).
• Stochastic RSI has formed a bearish crossover in the overbought zone, suggesting a short-term cooldown may be underway.

📌 Key Levels:

Resistance:

• 21,800–22,000: Resistance cluster including 200 EMA + prior breakdown zone from early April
• 22,300–22,500: If broken, this is the next major target for bulls

Support:

• 21,300–21,200: Area of short-term EMA support and previous consolidation
• 20,474 / 20,193.5: Key pivot zones from the March breakdown and April breakout
• 18,928–18,586: Long-term structure low

⚠️ Outlook:

The DAX is at a key inflection point. While the structure remains bullish, the 200 EMA is acting as a solid resistance, and momentum is showing signs of fatigue. A break and close above 21,800–22,000 would likely confirm continuation. Conversely, a rejection here could trigger a pullback toward 21,300–21,000.

📈 Bias: Neutral-to-bullish — watching for confirmation of breakout vs. signs of exhaustion.

 

Corporate Earnings

Intel is slated to report quarterly earnings after markets close on Thursday in its first report since CEO Lip-Bu Tan took the helm at the beleaguered chipmaker. Some investors expect a big move in the shares after it does. Yahoo Finance reports. Expected move by 25/04/2025 options expiration is 7.9%. Just 1 day before Earnings the CEO released a statement that INTEL will cut up to 20% of its workforce. Could this push up earnings of the beat down Chipmaker and help them work more efficiently?  Revenue falling. EPS near zero.  Hit by poor leadership and didn’t profit from the data centre AI hype train like competitors did. Missed 2 of last 8 quarters. CEO changes not showing results yet.

Alphabet - earnings Expected move of 8.94% by 25/04/2025 expiration date. EPS forecast $2.02 on $89.3B. Beat expectations in last 8 quarters.

 

Commodities

Crude oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday following reports that OPEC+ may propose accelerating production increases in June. The move, aimed at easing global supply constraints, comes amid ongoing tensions within the group over quota compliance.

Reuters reported that several OPEC+ members could push for back-to-back output hikes, raising the likelihood of increased global supply. This news hit prices hard.

Adding pressure, U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 0.25 million barrels, marking the fourth consecutive weekly increase—pointing to weaker domestic demand.

WTI crude dropped over 5% intraday before stabilizing near $62.30 per barrel.

 

Also Today

12:00   World     IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings: Ongoing discussions may impact global economic policies and investor sentiment.

14:30    USD                   Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar)               expected          2.1%, last         0.9%. Indicating sustained manufacturing activity.

14:30    USD                   Initial Jobless Claims               expected           222K, last         215K, suggesting a stable labor market.

16:00    USD                   Existing Home Sales (Mar)    expected          4.14M, last      4.26M