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Deteriorating steelmaker profitability, seasonal weakness and bearish technicals are weighing on iron ore. But with the price testing critical support, there's genuine two-way directional risk despite the substantial headwinds facing bulls.
Price action around the 200DMA could dictate the next major move for iron ore as fundamentals turn sharply negative and technical signals lean bearish.
China’s inflation data boosted hopes of further stimulus, while optimism for Fed rate cuts lifted risk appetite, sending Hang Seng Tech and iron ore higher on Wednesday.
A category five cyclone is set to hit Australia’s Pilbara coast, putting a third of global seaborne iron ore supply at risk. With SGX futures at five-month highs, traders are bracing for potential disruptions.
Copper and iron ore are on a tear, smashing through resistance levels heading into China’s latest data dump. With key levels in play and Trump’s trade policies looming, could the rally have more fuel in the tank?
A tidal wave of high-grade supply from Guinea’s Simandou project threatens to crush iron ore prices in 2025. With Chinese port inventories near record highs and global steel output faltering, the $100 iron ore era looks increasingly shaky. Bears have waited years for fundamentals to reassert themselves; next year could finally be their moment.
Iron ore and copper shine as China hints at supercharged stimulus, sparking a metals rally hotter than a blast furnace. With CEWC still ahead, could this be just the start of an electrifying run higher?
Traders are eyeing China’s stimulus announcement on Friday. Will it be substantial enough to counter weak growth and Trump’s looming 60% tariffs? The market reaction for USD/CNH, iron ore and copper hinges on the detail.
Iron ore, copper and silver, along with the Australian dollar, were among the markets hardest hit by China’s latest stimulus announcement, falling heavily as it became clear the objective of policymakers is to stablise growth, not see it accelerate meaningfully as seen in other state interventions of the past. The “bazooka” many headlines and bullish narratives were based upon ended up being yet another peashooter.
We’ve seen plenty of short squeezes before that have quickly run out off puff. But with speculation swirling that policymakers may follow up Tuesday’s monetary policy easing with fiscal stimulus ahead of Golden Week holidays, that alone may be enough to promote further gains in the days ahead.
Chinese regulators will slash interest rates, free up cash for banks to lend and implement measures to support the stock market, designed to help address flagging economic activity and inflation. However, none of the moves directly boost demand, raising questions about just how effective they may be in delivering a sustainable improvement in sentiment.
If you purely focus on the fundamentals of crude oil and iron ore, you’d be rightly feeling bearish. However, fundamentals and direction don’t always agree in these increasingly financialised markets, meaning you should arguably put just as much emphasis on price action to guide your investment decisions.
USD/CNH is pushing higher on Monday while China A50 futures are sliding, reversing moves seen on Friday. Now, as was the case then, fundamentals underpinning the moves continue to link back to China’s spluttering property sector.
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