European Open Cargo ship Ever Given is refloated
Whilst the refloating of the large cargo has weighed on oil prices overnight, it remains unclear how quickly the Suez Canal will be reopened and fully operational.
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The following sobering analysis on the S&P500 reinforces our expectations that recent record highs in US equity indices will not be revisited before at least six weeks.
A decline of at least 10% is expected to follow.
- Last week’s 3.6% decline in the S&P500 single-handedly erased all of the prior seven weeks’ consecutive gains.
The last time the S&P500 erased at least three weeks’ of consecutive gains was the week after the October 2007 record. Stocks fell more than 50% thereafter and took six years to regain that high.
- And for an unprecedented finding, last week’s S&P5 500 decline took place after SEVEN weekly consecutive gains, which had NEVER been seen before in the index.
Seven consecutive weekly gains have occurred in the past (Aug-Jul 1989, Aug-Sep 1993, Apr-May 1997, Feb-Mar 1998, Dec 2003-Jan 2004, Apr-May 2007, Mar-Apr 2009, Dec 2010-Jan 2011, Jan-Feb 2013), but never in any of those cases has the streak-breaking week fallen by more than 2.0%.
The fact that the magnitude of last week’s declines was nearly 4.0%, following as many as seven rising weeks, shows an unprecedented departure in sentiment from greed to fear.
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