Gold Price Forecast: Gold Tests Key Resistance as Hormuz Tensions Rise, US Dollar (DXY) Pressured Below 99

Weekly Recap: Gold, US Dollar, and Indices

• Gold and silver staged bullish rebounds, returning near key resistance levels at 4800 and 84, respectively. Metals are now testing the bounds of the February–May decline.
• US indices, Nasdaq and the S&P 500, are exhausting fresh record highs near 29,000 and 7,400, ahead of key US data releases, NFP today, CPI next week.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains pressured below the 99 zone, weighed by declining haven demand and renewed BOJ intervention risks, while testing the sustainability of the 2008–2026 structure.
• Softer US bond yields, now pressured below their March and May 2026 highs, are supporting short term bullish momentum in equities and metals while adding downside pressure on the US dollar.

These moves come as US–Iran peace proposals remain misaligned, prompting renewed escalation in the Hormuz Strait and across the region. As a result, both geopolitical developments and technical structures are driving potential breakout and reversal scenarios across markets.

The ongoing misalignment in this peace process is weighing on global markets through slower growth expectations, rising inflation pressures, and increased price volatility. Rapidly shifting headlines continue to trigger chart whipsaws, leaving portfolios exposed to unstable market conditions.

US Dollar Forecast (DXY): 3-Day Chart Analysis – Key Levels at 99 and 100.60

Source: TradingView

The 3-day timeframe highlights the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading within the June 2025 – May 2026 consolidation range, positioned below the broader January 2023 – April 2025 range, capped near the 100.60 level.

A bullish DXY scenario would be confirmed with a break above 99.50 in the near term and 100.60 in the medium term, opening the path toward 104.40, which could pressure global currencies and gold prices.

A bearish breakout below 97 would expose downside toward 95 in the short term—a key level supporting price action above the long-term 2008–2026 uptrend. A sustained breakdown could extend losses toward 2021 lows near 89, supporting further upside in XAU/USD and global currencies.

As Hormuz-related headlines evolve, the technical structure remains critical in confirming direction for the US Dollar.

Gold Price Forecast (XAU/USD): Weekly Chart – Testing Key Resistance at 4800

Source: TradingView

Gold (XAU/USD) is now testing a critical resistance zone near 4800, following its sharp pullback from yearly highs. This level aligns with a descending trendline connecting lower highs between February and April 2026, making it a key inflection point for price direction.

A bullish gold scenario emerges with sustained price action above 4830 and 4890, which could redirect momentum toward 5000, followed by resistance at 5250, before potentially extending toward the 6000 level.

A bearish scenario would be reinforced if gold rejects this resistance and closes below 4500 and 4300, opening the door for a move toward 4000, with further downside extending toward the 3800 zone—a level that may present long-term accumulation opportunities.

Gold Price Forecast (XAU/USD): 4-Hour Chart – Short-Term Pullback Risk

Source: TradingView

On the 4-hour timeframe, short-term pullbacks may develop as RSI and MACD show bearish divergence from overbought levels. This could drive a retest of the February–April trendline near 4660–4640, followed by a potential move toward the 4500 support level, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias.

On the upside, a sustained break above 4740 and 4760 would reopen a move toward the 4820–4890 resistance zone, potentially restoring the broader bullish outlook for gold price.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves