Global Selloff Deepens as Nvidia Euphoria Fades; Crypto Crashes

Market Summary – 21 November 2025

Global Markets

• Asia slumps: Regional equities tumbled, with the Nikkei and MSCI Asia-Pacific both down over 2 % as the delayed US jobs data failed to clarify the Fed’s next move.
• Tech-led global selloff: US and European futures fell sharply as AI valuations came under renewed pressure despite Nvidia’s strong guidance. The Nasdaq saw its widest swing since April, while Goldman Sachs warned of USD 39 bn in equity sales from trend-following hedge funds.
• US session recap: Wall Street opened higher on Nvidia optimism before reversing hard into the close.
  • Early risk-on saw equities rally, high-beta FX rise, and crude strengthen.
  • Later risk-off was broad and catalyst-free, driven by valuation fatigue in tech.
• US rates: September jobs data showed strong payroll gains but a higher jobless rate and downward revisions, leaving Fed expectations mixed; December rate-cut odds rose to ~40 % as Treasury yields fell.
• Japan:
  • Announced a ¥21.3 tn stimulus plan, temporarily weighing on the yen and JGBs; yields eased after officials signaled issuance below last year’s level.
  • Core inflation +3 % (Oct) intensified pressure on the BoJ to tighten, while authorities reiterated FX intervention risks as the yen hovered near a 10-month low.
• Commodities:
  • Oil extended losses on optimism about Russia–Ukraine peace talks.
  • Gold pulled back from highs as haven demand shifted toward the yen.
• DAX Technical Analysis:
  • The Germany 40 CFD (daily) is attempting to stabilize near the 200 EMA (23,165) after a sharp correction from recent highs. The index bounced modestly from the 22,900–23,000 area, aligning closely with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement (22,507) of the prior uptrend. The MACD remains deeply negative, confirming bearish momentum, while the RSI (36) is hovering just above oversold territory, signaling that selling may be losing intensity.
  • Immediate resistance is at 23,500 (0.786 Fib), then 23,900 (50 EMA). A daily close above these levels would signal a recovery attempt, while failure to hold above 22,900–22,800 risks a deeper retracement toward 21,800 (0.5 Fib). Tone: bearish bias softening, potential for short-term base forming near the 200 EMA and key Fib support.

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin collapse: Fell about 30 % from its early-October record high (~USD 126 k) to ~USD 88.3 k, its lowest since April — erasing ~USD 600 bn in market value and now –6 % YTD.
  • Drivers: waning Fed-cut expectations, reduced risk appetite, and rising equity hedging.
  • Options demand surged for downside protection at USD 85 k and 80 k strikes.
  • Safe-haven rotation: Gold and the Swiss franc outperformed, underscoring Bitcoin’s limited use as an equity hedge.
• Latest leg lower: Bitcoin fell another 6 % Friday to USD 85,350, its seven-month trough, with weekly losses >9 %.
  • Crypto market cap –USD 1.2 tn in six weeks (CoinGecko).

US Policy & Strategic Industry Moves

• National champions initiative:
  • The Trump administration has acquired minority stakes and option-like structures in listed US firms across critical supply chains—rare earths, semiconductors, and nuclear energy.
  • Aims: secure strategic independence, foster public-private partnerships, and shield domestic players from foreign competition.
  • Short-term market reaction positive on expectations of preferential treatment, contracts, and regulatory relief.
  • Long-term impact remains uncertain, but analysts see opportunity in tracking firms designated as “national champions.”

Emerging Markets Earnings

• MSCI EM Q3 season:
  • ~85 % of companies (≈80 % of index mkt cap) have reported.
  • Aggregate earnings +13 % YoY; one-third beat estimates, 28 % missed.
  • Asia IT standout: regional IT profits +44 % YoY; South Korea +32 %, Taiwan +28 %.
  • Central European names (Poland, Czech Republic) also strong (>20 % growth); Latin America lagged (–12 %).
  • Analysts forecast EM profit growth rising from +11.4 % (2025) to +17.5 % (2026), led by Asian semiconductors (+33 %).
  • Seoul market remains a top pick given robust earnings upgrades and moderate valuations.

Russia–Ukraine Developments

• Trump peace plan:
  • 28-point framework would require Ukraine to cede eastern territory, cap military size, and forgo NATO membership, while providing a US-EU security guarantee modeled on NATO Article 5.
  • White House said the plan is “acceptable to both sides” and ongoing talks are “positive.”
  • Envoys Witkoff and Rubio met Ukrainian officials; President Zelensky confirmed coordination on next steps.
• Russian advances:
  • Putin: Russian troops active in Kostiantynivka, claiming control of Kupyansk and 80 % of Vovchansk; urged Ukrainian forces to surrender.

Overall:
Global markets reversed from Nvidia-driven euphoria to broad risk aversion as valuation fears resurfaced and Fed uncertainty persisted. Asia and tech stocks bore the brunt of selling; oil and crypto slumped, while the yen and safe-havens regained footing. EM earnings momentum remains intact, but geopolitical and policy headlines dominate short-term sentiment.

Philip Papageorgiou – Market Analyst
X: PhilipForexCom