Nasdaq 100 Forecast: NDX falls in nervous trade ahead of Trump's deadline for Iran

US futures                                         

Dow futures -0.36%, S&P futures -0.64%  & Nasdaq futures -0.65%

In Europe                                                                        

FTSE -0.35% & DAX -0.5%

• US stocks edge lower in cautious trade
• Trump set an 8 PM ET deadline for Iran to agree to a deal and open the Strait
• Broadcom jumps after a deal with Google
• Oil rises on supply worries

US stocks set for lower open ahead of Iran deadline

US stocks are heading for a lower open on Tuesday as investors look nervously ahead to President Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The deadline, set for 8:00 PM ET (midnight GMT), comes as Tehran has so far refused to comply. Trump has warned that the US could target Iranian power plants and bridges if the Strait is not reopened, although he has also suggested that negotiations may still be ongoing.

Markets are increasingly concerned about the risk of escalation, which could send oil prices sharply higher and have broad implications across financial markets.

At the same time, any sign of a climbdown from either Washington or Tehran could trigger a sharp relief rally in equities, alongside lower energy prices.

Global markets have already come under pressure over the past six weeks amid the Middle East conflict, rising oil prices, and growing concerns over the inflationary impact.

This week’s US inflation data (March CPI) will be key in assessing how much of the recent surge in energy prices is feeding through into consumer prices — a development that could further complicate the outlook for the Federal Reserve, which is no longer expected to cut rates this year.

Corporate news

• Broadcom is rising around 4% premarket after announcing a long-term agreement with Google to develop and supply custom AI chips. The deal reinforces Broadcom’s position as a key partner in powering advanced AI infrastructure.
• Energy stocks are in focus, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron moving higher as oil prices remain elevated above $100 per barrel.
• Healthcare stocks are also gaining after the Centres for Medicare & Medicaid Services finalised payment increases for privately run Medicare Advantage plans.

Nasdaq – technical analysis

After breaking below the 200-day SMA, the Nasdaq found support around 22,800 and has since rebounded. The price has risen above resistance near 24,000, which aligns with the October–November lows, exposing 24,400 the falling trendline resistance and the horizontal resistance. Above here, 24,500 (200-day SMA) comes into focus. A break above this zone would improve the near-term outlook and bring 25,000 into focus. On the downside, a move back below 24,000 would shift attention back to 22,800, the recent low.

FX markets – USD falls, GBP/USD rises

The US dollar is easing, giving back earlier gains as investors remain cautious ahead of Trump’s deadline. The softer dollar may reflect some optimism that a deal could still be reached.

EUR/USD is rising despite weak eurozone data. The services PMI fell to 50.2 in March (from 51.9), marking a 10-month low, as demand deteriorated and input prices rose — a stagflationary signal.

GBP/USD is also rising on dollar weakness, despite a downward revision in UK data. The services PMI fell to 50.5 (from 53.9), while the composite PMI was revised to 50.3. Notably, input costs surged, highlighting growing inflation pressures.

Oil remains elevated on supply risks

Oil prices remain elevated, trading around $110 per barrel, after pulling back from earlier highs near $116.50.

Markets remain focused on the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supply transits.

Failure to reopen the Strait on today’s deadline could lead to further attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, exacerbating supply disruptions. Exports from several Gulf producers have already been constrained, with storage limits being reached due to restricted flows.

Even in the event of de-escalation, the recovery in supply is likely to be gradual, meaning oil prices could remain elevated for some time.

Meanwhile, the UN Security Council is expected to vote on a resolution aimed at protecting commercial shipping through the Strait. However, the proposal has been significantly diluted, limiting its immediate impact.