S&P500 Forecast: SPX slips ahead of the FOMC rate decision and big tech earnings.

US futures                                         

Dow futures -0.28%, S&P futures -0.09%  & Nasdaq futures 0.18%

In Europe                                                                        

FTSE -0.90% & DAX -0.27%

• US stocks are mixed ahead of a busy day
• Big tech earnings from AMZN, META, GOOGL & MSFT
• US-Iran peace talks stall, Strait remains closed
• Oil extends gains towards $115

US stocks set for cautious open ahead of Fed, Big Tech earnings

US equities are pointing to a mixed open on Wednesday as investors tread carefully ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee decision, which is widely expected to be the last chaired by Jerome Powell. Focus is also on a heavy slate of Big Tech earnings due after the close.

Results from Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Alphabet will be closely watched for signals on how AI investments are translating into growth. The sector has shown notable resilience in recent weeks, though concerns have emerged after reports that Meta’s AI initiatives missed internal targets for user growth and revenue, raising questions about the pace of return on investment.

Following a strong rally this quarter, investors will be assessing whether the momentum in equities — particularly tech — can be sustained or if valuations leave the market vulnerable to disappointment.

Markets are fully pricing in the Fed holding rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Attention will centre on Powell’s press conference for signals on the policy path.

With oil prices rising and inflation expectations shifting higher, there is a risk the Fed adopts a more hawkish tone. Emphasising upside inflation risks — particularly those linked to energy markets — could reinforce the “higher for longer” narrative, potentially capping near-term gains in equities.

Corporate movers

• Robinhood is down over 10% after missing first-quarter profit expectations.
• Seagate Technology is up around 15% following an upbeat outlook.
• Micron Technology and SanDisk are also gaining after updates.
• Starbucks is lower by more than 4% after cutting its annual profit forecast.

S&P 500 – Technical analysis

The S&P 500 has rebounded from the 6,310 low to a record high near 7,190. While the RSI is moving out of overbought territory, the broader uptrend remains intact.

A break above 7,190 would open the door toward 7,300 and fresh record highs.

Support is seen at 7,050 (last week’s low), with a move below exposing the 7,000 psychological level.

FX: USD firms, EUR/USD under pressure

The US dollar is strengthening on safe-haven demand ahead of the Fed decision, supported by rising Treasury yields amid higher oil prices.

EUR/USD is under pressure, weighed down by dollar strength and ahead of the European Central Bank meeting. The ECB faces a stagflationary backdrop, with rising inflation expectations — one-year expectations at 4% — alongside slowing growth.

GBP/USD is falling as investors remain cautious ahead of the Bank of England decision. Rates are expected to remain unchanged at 3.75%, with markets still pricing in two hikes this year.

Oil rises 8% this week

Oil prices are extending gains, with Brent crude trading above $115 per barrel amid ongoing supply concerns linked to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.

Talks between the US and Iran remain stalled, while President Donald Trump has reportedly instructed preparations for an extended blockade of Iranian ports, raising the risk of prolonged supply constraints.

Even following the UAE’s exit from OPEC, a sharp increase in Gulf supply appears unlikely, particularly given infrastructure damage. As a result, oil prices are likely to remain elevated, sustaining inflation pressures and influencing the global policy outlook.