Weekly Crypto Technical Outlook: Is the Recovery Still Not Enough?

As the second week of December comes to an end, the cryptocurrency market has begun to show a sense of indecision in recent price movements. Despite the mid-week rebound, most major cryptocurrencies ended with mixed performance, failing to define a clear short-term direction. This suggests that a steady state of neutrality has begun to consolidate over the past few sessions. This is now the second consecutive week in which the market has shown highly neutral oscillations, and as the year-end season aligns with a lack of major economic catalysts, a neutral outlook may continue in the short term until confidence fully recovers.

Performance of Major Cryptocurrencies

Source: Data - StoneX, Tradingview

• The cryptocurrency with the strongest recovery this week was Ethereum, up 2.11%, maintaining its position as the asset with the most resilient short-term upward behavior. In contrast, Dogecoin was the most affected, falling -1.86%, reinforcing its persistent weakness in recent sessions.
   

• Over the past ten weeks, buying attempts have been insufficient to sustain clear bullish trends, allowing a medium-term bearish bias to remain dominant. All major cryptocurrencies are still showing negative performance. Cardano stands out with a drop of -52.93%, while Bitcoin has been more resilient, with an accumulated loss of -26.32%, positioning it as the asset that has best resisted selling pressure during this period.
   

• So far in 2025, all major cryptocurrencies appear on track to post negative yearly performance. Bitcoin is the least affected, with a year-to-date decline of -3.63%, while Dogecoin remains the most affected, with a yearly loss of -57.13%, making it the worst-performing asset of the year.
   

• Bitcoin, as the market’s reference asset, has attempted to mark higher price levels, even approaching the 95,000 USD per BTC zone. However, buying strength has not been sufficient to sustain this progress, leaving BTC far from the 100,000 USD psychological barrier.
   

• Overall, the repeated mix of rebounds and declines indicates that neutrality continues to dominate the market, and unless relevant catalysts emerge, this sentiment may persist in the coming sessions.

Colors from red to green — red for negative correlations and green for positive correlations.

Source: Data - StoneX, Tradingview

As indecision intensifies, major cryptoassets have begun to lose correlation with Bitcoin. Currently, only Ethereum maintains a high coefficient (above 0.8), while most cryptocurrencies hover near 0.5, and some —such as Ripple and Dogecoin— show coefficients near 0, reflecting almost no short-term correlation. This indicates that prolonged indecision has reduced the similarity in movements between major cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, highlighting the absence of a dominant market bias. It is important to note that correlation coefficients may change over time.

In this context, the persistence of neutrality and correlation decline shows that confidence has fragmented, concentrating in certain assets while others remain weak. The market may therefore show divergent directions over the next sessions, with some cryptocurrencies attempting to recover while others reach new lows.

 

Bitcoin Continues to Struggle With Its Downtrend

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Although Bitcoin closed the week with slightly positive variations, this renewed buying pressure has not been enough to fully restore short-term confidence. Price continues to confront the long-standing downward trendline, without a meaningful breakout that would allow a new bullish structure to emerge. As long as buying pressure does not strengthen, indecision will likely continue dominating BTC’s movements, potentially leading to the formation of a short-term sideways range.

Indicators:

• Both RSI and MACD attempted to maintain positive signals—RSI above the neutral 50 level and a MACD histogram above zero—yet in recent sessions, both indicators have shown weakness near their neutral zones. This reflects that the average strength of moving averages and the impulses of the last 14 sessions remain in balanced territory, without a dominant direction. If this dynamic continues, a period of more pronounced neutrality in BTC price action could consolidate in the coming days.

Key Levels:

• 92,500 USD – Key resistance: A neutrality level observed in May, aligned with the downward trendline. A consistent bullish breakout above this zone could shift sentiment and open the door to a dominant bullish bias toward the end of 2025.
   
• 85,692 USD – Nearby barrier: Aligned with recent lows. If price approaches this level with limited strength, it may reinforce short-term indecision and favor a sideways range.
   
• 79,000 USD – Final support: Represents the yearly lows. A break below this level would activate a more aggressive selling phase and extend the dominant downtrend that has guided BTC since its historical highs.

 

Dogecoin Remains the Most Affected Currency of the Year

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Dogecoin continues to stand out as the cryptocurrency with the most severe depreciation in 2025. Selling pressure remains strong, and price is once again approaching yearly lows not seen since April, reinforcing a dominant bearish bias. The primary downtrend has even given way to a sharper downward line in recent weeks. If this pressure continues, Dogecoin may register new lows just weeks before the year ends.

Indicators:

• The RSI remains below the neutral 50 level, reinforcing a consistent selling bias in recent impulse movements. The MACD shows a histogram returning toward the zero line, suggesting a potential bearish crossover that could further strengthen downside momentum. However, the RSI is forming higher lows while price maintains constant lows, indicating a bullish divergence that could signal an excess of selling pressure and open space for short-term upward corrections.

Key Levels:

• 18.27 – Key resistance: Aligned with a recent high zone and the downward trendline. A move back to this level could end the current aggressive trend and open space for a short-term bullish bias.
   
• 15.55 – Nearby barrier: Reflects recent local highs and may become an important reference for potential bullish corrections.
   
• 13.19 – Final support: Marks the 2025 lows. A sustained break below this level would increase the dominance of the bearish bias and extend the aggressive downward structure guiding Dogecoin’s short-term movements.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him at: @julianpineda25