Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Bulls Eye Breakout
AUD/USD is poised to mark a fifth daily advance as the Aussie bulls test trend resistance at fresh yearly highs. Battle lines drawn on the short-term technical charts.
Share this:
Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels
- AUD/USD poised to mark fifth-daily advance- testing trend resistance at fresh yearly high
- Australian Dollar risk for exhaustion / price inflection- Fed, PCE, NFP on tap into monthly cross
- Resistance 6622 (key), 6671, 6723– Support 6581, 6486-6506 (key), 6458
The Australian Dollar surged more than 1.8% this week with AUD/USD now testing multi-month uptrend resistance at fresh yearly highs. The focus is on today’s close with the immediate advance vulnerable while below this key slope. Battlelines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this AUD/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that AUD/USD had responded to uptrend resistance and that, “From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6458 IF Aussie is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above 6622 needed to mark uptrend resumption.” Aussie plunged more than 2% off the monthly highs with price briefly registering an intraday low at 6455 before rebounding sharply higher. A five-day rally takes price into confluent resistance at the September low / upper parallel at 6622- watch the close with respect to this zone today.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD driving into uptrend resistance in early U.S. trade. A breakout of the July opening-range remains vulnerable while below this key slope and a breach / close above is needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2019 low at 6671 and the 78.6% retracement of the broader 2024 decline at 6723.
Initial support rests with the July open at 6581 and is backed by the May high-day close (HDC) / weekly open at 6486-6506. Losses would need to be limited to this region for the late-June advance to remain viable (near-term bullish invalidation). Subsequent support seen at the June low-day close (LDC) at 6458 with a break below 6350 ultimately needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / larger reversal is underway.
Bottom line: A breakout of the July opening-range takes AUD/USD into confluent uptrend resistance- risk for topside exhaustion / price inflection here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited to 6486 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above this slope needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.
Keep in mind the FOMC interest rate decision is on tap next week with Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) slated into the monthly cross. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.
Key Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts
- Gold Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Breakout Eyes Record Highs
- Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Rejected at Resistance
- Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Coils Below Key Resistance
- US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Bulls Eye Breakout at Resistance
Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Forecast: Nasdaq Selloff Deepens as Dow Rally Stalls 10 24 2026
A failed S&P breakout and looming Nasdaq support test raise the stakes for next week’s Fed decision and October’s monthly close.
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: AI earnings could overshadow the Fed and BoJ
AI sentiment has become a major driver of US Treasury yields and USD/JPY. With Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon reporting this week, central bank decisions may have competition for traders' attention.
Silver forecast: metals liquidation drags XAG/USD into $50-55 support
Silver has broken its July low and slipped into a long-term support zone as the selling in precious metals deepens. The chart shows where the metal could bottom, and next week's Fed decision may decide whether it does.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.