Bitcoin Outlook: Bullish Bias Continues to Test Historical Highs

Over the past two trading sessions, Bitcoin has risen by just over 4% and is now trading very close to the $110,000 mark per BTC. For now, the bullish momentum remains intact, driven by consistent buying interest, supported by the growth of key market indicators reflecting Bitcoin’s internal dynamics. In addition, overall market confidence has stabilized, which has helped maintain buyer interest. If these conditions persist, buying pressure could become even more significant in the short term.

Market Dynamics Behind Bitcoin

Bitcoin has attracted strong buying interest in recent weeks, reflected in the “Open Interest – All Exchanges” indicator, which measures the total value of open positions. This indicator recently hit new short-term highs, surpassing $38 billion, pointing to a sharp increase in market activity, breaking previous records.

Source: Cryptoquant

However, the fact that Open Interest remains at such elevated levels could suggest that most long positions are already active, potentially limiting room for new entries in the short term. Also, with BTC nearing its historical highs, this may reduce appetite for fresh purchases, thereby limiting the inflow of new capital and potentially triggering a period of price stabilization.

If Open Interest remains at peak levels and profit-taking begins, we could see the onset of a more pronounced sideways or neutral phase in Bitcoin price action.

 

How’s Market Confidence Holding Up?

In recent weeks, global confidence has shown signs of recovery, thanks in part to the ongoing ceasefire in the Middle East and the swift resolution of trade tensions between Canada and the U.S., which helped resume negotiations. These developments have kept uncertainty at lower levels, allowing confidence to recover steadily.

This rebound in confidence has also been visible in the crypto market. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 54 points, approaching the “Greed” zone after briefly touching “Fear” levels. The chart shows a gradual recovery over recent sessions, which has helped keep crypto demand in positive territory.

Source: Coinmarketcap

If the index continues to rise, it could signal increasing volumes of long positions, as stronger sentiment tends to reinforce positive price expectations. A consolidation of the index in “Greed” territory could further intensify buying pressure.

 

Bitcoin Technical Outlook

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• New Sideways Channel Emerges: Although BTC has attempted to sustain a bullish trend in recent months, a new lateral channel has begun to form, with resistance near $111,000 and support around $100,000. So far, recent buying moves have not been strong enough to break this structure, so if this behavior continues, a neutral short-term scenario may solidify.

• RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) line continues to oscillate above the 50 level, indicating dominance of bullish momentum in the short term. However, it has started to flatten gradually, which could signal a pause in upward movement or a consolidation phase if this pattern persists in the coming days.

• MACD: Similarly, the MACD histogram remains very close to the neutral zero line, reflecting a gradual loss of momentum in the moving averages. If this setup continues, the price could remain range-bound, extending the current phase of technical indecision.

 

Key Levels:

• $111,000 – Main Resistance: This level marks the historical high on the chart. A sustained breakout above this zone could strengthen the current bullish bias and lead to new all-time highs.
• $107,000 – Immediate Barrier: This level represents the midpoint of the current lateral range, acting as short-term dynamic support. Price fluctuations around this level could help maintain the prevailing sideways behavior.
• $100,000 – Key Support: A critical psychological level, aligned with prior consolidation zones. A return to this level under bearish pressure could jeopardize the continuation of the current uptrend and open the door to a more structured bearish bias.

 

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25