British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Bulls Retest Major Resistance
British Pound rebounded off key support last week with GBP/USD trading back into pivotal resistance at the 2024 highs. Battle lines drawn on the weekly technical chart.
Share this:
British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD Weekly Trade Levels
- British Pound defends 2025 uptrend- rallies back into pivotal resistance at the 2024 highs
- GBP/USD risk for price inflection / breakout in the days ahead- UK inflation, retail sales on tap
- Resistance 1.3414, 1.3500/15(key), 1.3671- Support 1.3270, 1.3127 (key), 1.2860
Sterling is trading back into pivotal resistance this week with GBP/USD poised for a potential breakout in the days ahead. Battle lines drawn on the GBP/USD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last British Pound Weekly Forecast we noted that the GBP/USD breakout had, “responded to initial resistance here- risk for near-term price inflection. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to the median-line IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach / close above 1.3515 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.”
Sterling plunged more than nearly 2.3% off the highs with price rebounding off the medina-line last week. The move keeps the focus on a breakout of this five-week range below resistance with momentum testing a potential breach into overbought territory- looking for a breakout of this range in the days ahead.
Resistance remains unchanged with the 78.6% retracement of the 2021 decline at 1.3414 and is backed by a major confluence just higher at 1.3500/14- a region defined by the 2019 high and the 2009 swing low. Note that the 75% parallel converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and a breach / weekly close above would be needed to mark uptrend resumption / fuel the next leg of the advance. Subsequent resistance eyed at the 2022 high-week close (HWC) at 1.3671 and the 61.8% extension of the 2022 advance at 1.4000.
Look for initial weekly support at the 2025 HWC near 1.3270 with key near-term support unchanged at the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range at 1.3127. A break / close below the median-line would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / suggest a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent support rests with the 52-week moving average near 1.2860 and the 2024 yearly open / February 2019 low at 1.2731/73.
Bottom line: Sterling is trading just below resistance at the yearly highs for a fifth-consecutive week. Looking for a reaction off this mark for guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.3270 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3514 ultimately needed to mark resumption of the yearly uptrend.
Keep in mind we get the release of UK inflation data (CPI) tomorrow with UK retail sales on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close for guidance here. I’ll publish an updated British Pound Short-term Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.
GBP/USD Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Weekly Technical Charts
- Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
- Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
- Gold (XAU/USD)
- US Dollar Index (DXY)
- Euro (EUR/USD)
- S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow
- Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
- Crude Oil (WTI)
- Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
EUR/USD forecast remains tilted lower with French bond troubles ahead of US jobs report
The EUR/USD has tagged a fresh year-to-date low as French public-finance concerns trigger a government bond sell-off. Today's US jobs report may change little, with resilient activity, elevated energy prices and hawkish Fed bets keeping the greenback supported. With the pair trapped below resistance at 1.1410, the risk to the near-term EUR/USD forecast is tilted to the downside.
What Stretched 10-Year Yields Mean for Major Currency Pairs in Q4
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are nearing a long-term resistance zone with overbought RSI readings, raising near-term pullback risk for the dollar.
USD/CAD shooting star puts September surge on notice
USD/CAD has printed a clear bearish reversal pattern after an extraordinary September surge, but confirmation may depend heavily on how US Treasury yields react to Friday’s payrolls report.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.