Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Recovery Presses a Key Breakout Zone
USD/CAD rebounded sharply from the monthly lows, but the rally now faces a pivotal breakout zone that could decide the next major move. Fed on tap.
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Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels
- USD/CAD has recovered sharply after rebounding off support zone earlier this month.
- The rally is now approaching a major resistance confluence that could determine the next multi-week move.
- Weekly momentum suggests the recovery is beginning to lose steam beneath resistance
- A sustained breakout would reinforce the broader bullish outlook, while rejection would keep the corrective decline intact.
- Tomorrow’s FOMC decision and evolving Fed expectations could provide the catalyst for the next directional move.
- Resistance 1.4140/55 (key), 1.4239, 1.4292– Support 1.4017, 1.3956/78 (key), ~1.3861
USD/CAD has recovered from this month's low after a sharp 1.7% pullback from the yearly high, but the advance is now beginning to show signs of exhaustion beneath a major confluence of resistance. Multiple technical studies converge just overhead, making this one of the most important inflection zones since the correction began. A decisive weekly close above this barrier would strengthen the case that the broader yearly uptrend is ready to resume, while another rejection would keep the focus on a deeper corrective pullback heading into Wednesday's FOMC decision. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CAD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CAD had, “extended the May rally to fresh yearly highs and while the outlook remains constructive, the risk for further exhaustion into the start of the month mounts IF price breaks below this key pivot zone. The July opening-range is now taking shape above and a breakout may offer guidance in the days ahead.” USD/CAD broke lower two-weeks later with a decline of more than 1.7% off the yearly high rebounding last week at the 2025 May high at 1.4017.
The recovery is showing signs of exhaustion today just ahead of confluent resistance at 1.4140/55- a region defined by the November high, the 2025 February low and the 61.8% retracement of June decline. Note that the median line of the yearly pitchfork converges on this zone and a topside breach / weekly close above would be needed to mark resumption of the yearly uptrend. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 2025 March lows at 1.4239, and the 2025 high-week close / 61.8% retracement of the 2025 decline at 1.4292. Look for larger reaction there IF reached.
Weekly support remains at 1.4017 with broader bullish invalidation just lower at 1.3956/78- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range and the 2022 & March swing highs. Note that this threshold converges on the lower parallel in August and a break / weekly close below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway. Such a scenario would expose the 52-week moving average near ~1.3861.
Bottom line: The USD/CAD recovery trading just below pivotal resistance ahead of tomorrow’s highly anticipated FOMC rate decision. The focus is on a breakout of the 1.4017-1.1455 range for guidance. From a trading standpoint losses would need to be limited to 1.3955 for the yearly uptrend to remain viable with a weekly close above 1.4155 required to fuel the next leg of the advance.
Despite broad consensus that the Fed will leave policy unchanged tomorrow, interest rate markets continue to price a meaningful probability of further tightening. Fed funds futures imply a roughly 30% chance of a hike this week and a 75% probability of at least one 25-basis-point increase by September. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly / monthly close for guidance here. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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