DXY, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, Gold, Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
Sr. Technical Strategist Michael Boutros highlights the levels that matter on the USD Majors, commodities, and equity indices charts this week.
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Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks
- Technical trade setups we are tracking into the start of the week on the USD Majors, commodities, and equity indices.
- Next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, August 24 at 8:30am ET
- Review the latest Video Updates or Stream Live on my YouTube playlist
In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), Bitcoin (BTC/USD), S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), and Dow Jones (DJI). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly open. The assets are chaptered on the recording for your convenience.
US Dollar Index Price Chart – USD 240min (DXY)
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DXY on TradingView
Notes: The U.S. Dollar Index is testing pivotal support around the monthly range low at 99.41/49- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly advance and the January swing high. Just below this zone the 200-day and 52-week moving averages converge on the lower parallel near 99.04/18. A break / daily close below this slope would be needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline towards the August high-day close (HDC) / May low at 98.68/69 and the objective yearly open at 98.24.
Monthly open resistance stands at 99.69 and is baked by the 2024 low / low close at 100.16/35. Broader bearish invalidation remains with the March high and the 61.8% extension of the January advance at 100.64/77.
Bottom line: The dollar is testing a major support pivot at the August opening range lows- risk for exhaustion / price inflection into the lower parallel. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops- rallies would need to be limited to the median-line IF price is heading lower on this stretch. Review my latest US Dollar Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD technical trade levels.
Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
Notes: Euro is attempting to mark a fourth consecutive weekly advance, and the rally may be vulnerable into the upper parallel. There are numerous technical hurdles here starting with the 1.618% extension of the June rally at 1.1609, backed closely by the 200-day & 52-week moving averages and the 61.8% retracement of the April decline at 1.1628/33 and 1.1649. A breach / weekly close above this level is ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance toward the yearly open at 1.1746.
Watch today’s close with respect to the May / January lows at 1.1576/79. Monthly open support converges on the median line early in the week at 1.1535 with near-term bullish invalidation now raised to the 38.2% retracement of the June rally / August range low at 1.1500/04.
Bottom line: The Euro rally has extended into technical resistance at the upper bounds of a multi-week uptrend. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 1.1535 IF EUR/USD is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.1649 needed to fuel the next leg of the rally.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Notes: AUD/USD has rallied more than 3.8% off the June low with the rally testing resistance early in the week at the 61.% retracement of the May decline at 7120. Daily momentum has reached the highest level since January and the first major test of the July breakout.
Initial support rests at with the weekly open at 7082/83 with near-term bullish invalidation steady at a major Fibonacci cluster around 7003/23. Note that the lower parallel converges on this zone into the close of the week and losses below this slope would suggest a more significant high is in place, and a larger reversal is underway. A topside breach / daily close above 7120 exposes the upper parallel (currently near 7160s) and a longer-term Fibonacci confluence near 7208/14.
Bottom line: Aussie is testing technical resistance here just ahead of the upper parallel. Again, watch the daily close. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 7082 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 7120 needed to fuel the next leg of the rally.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
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