Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Three-Week Range Nears a Breakout
AUD/USD has spent three weeks trapped beneath resistance, with the next decisive move likely to shape the August outlook.
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Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels
- AUD/USD has stalled beneath the monthly high after rallying in four of the past five weeks.
- Aussie has traded within a well-defined range below resistance for three consecutive weeks.
- A breakout from the current range to provide important directional guidance into August.
- Event risk on tap into the August open: US ISM services & manufacturing data, ADP employment, and NFPs
- Resistance 7023, 7116/20 (key), 7208/14- Support 6927, 6877/80 (key), ~6825
AUD/USD heads into the July close locked in a well-defined three-week range just beneath major resistance, leaving the pair at a pivotal technical inflection point. Buyers continue to pressure the upper boundary of the range while sellers have been unable to force a meaningful rejection, underscoring the constructive nature of the monthly recovery without yet confirming a breakout. The focus now shifts to whether the weekly and monthly closes can provide the confirmation needed to resolve this consolidation heading into August. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Forecast we noted that, “AUD/USD has broken the November uptrend with the bears now facing the first major test of technical support. The weekly & monthly opening ranges are taking shape just above and the focus is on a breakout in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 7023 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 6877 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” Aussie registered an intraday high at 7027 two-weeks later with price stuck in a well-defined range just below resistance for a third week.
Initial support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the late-June advance at 6927 with key support steady at 6877/80- a region define by the March close low and the 1.618% extension of the May decline. A break / weekly close below this threshold would threaten a deeper correction in the weeks ahead with subsequent support seen a the 52-week moving average (currently ~6824) and the 2025 close high / 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 6717/57.
A topside breach of this key pivot zone would expose key resistance at the February high-close and the 61.8% retracement at 7116/20. Note that former pitchfork support converges on this threshold in mid-August and strength surpassing this slope would suggest a more significant low is place and potential resumption of the broader uptrend. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the 2021 decline and the 100% extension of the 2025 rally at 7208/14 and the 2019 swing high at 7295.
Bottom line: AUD/USD has rallied four-of-the-past five-weeks (last week marked a weekly doji) with the bulls testing resistance at the monthly high for a third-consecutive week. The immediate focus heading into August is on a breakout of this range for guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 6927 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 7023 needed to fuel the next leg of the rally.
Keep in mind we get the release of key ISM data next week with the July Non-Farm Payrolls report on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly closes for guidance into the August open. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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