
EUR/USD Bounce Hits a Wall of Fed Hawks and French Finances
The EUR/USD forecast hinges on U.S. CPI after five straight weekly losses, with hawkish Fed bets and a fully priced ECB rate hike weighing on the euro.
Share this:

The EUR/USD forecast hinges on U.S. CPI after five straight weekly losses, with hawkish Fed bets and a fully priced ECB rate hike weighing on the euro.
Fawad Razaqzada, StoneX Media Market Analyst, explains how the five-week downtrend, U.S. inflation data and crude oil prices shape the euro and U.S. dollar outlook.
With CPI expectations well defined, a meaningful surprise is needed to trigger a strong dollar move. Crude oil prices and bond yields remain key dollar drivers as Middle East military activity remains high, while French government finances weigh on the single currency.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Related tags:
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Trend Break Faces Immediate Test 10 14 2026
AUD/USD is trying to hold a fresh trend break as renewed selling pressure tests whether the recovery can extend beyond the recent rebound.

Dow Jones outlook: CPI, oil and yields put the rally to the test
US index futures rebounded in the first half of Wednesday’s session, along with European indices ahead of the release of US CPI. Some slightly dovish remarks from the Fed’s Williams seem to have helped sentiment a little, but whether those comments will be backed by data remains to be seen. While slightly hotter than expected inflation data shouldn’t be enough for markets to price in an October Fed hike with more than a coin flip probability, it can nonetheless reinforce expectations of further tightening later in the year.

EUR/USD Bounce Hits a Wall of Fed Hawks and French Finances
The EUR/USD forecast hinges on U.S. CPI after five straight weekly losses, with hawkish Fed bets and a fully priced ECB rate hike weighing on the euro.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.



