Gold and Silver Shine as Treasury Risks Mount

• Silver breaks above $60 after ascending triangle coil
• Gold bullish breakout risk builds
• Treasury futures slide; 30-year contract breaches 200DMA
• Term premium rising as political, legal events near

Summary

Futures tied to the world’s benchmark interest rate sit at a pivotal level, reflecting a market clouded by extraordinary uncertainty. This isn’t just about the Fed’s next move—it’s about whether Treasuries and the U.S. dollar can still be relied upon as safe havens in a world where politics, litigation, and fiscal risk are colliding.

With 30-year bond futures already breaking down through key levels and term premium reasserting itself, the message is clear: risk is being repriced, and it’s happening fast. Against that backdrop, the surge in gold and silver looks less like a coincidence and more like a rotation into alternative havens as confidence in traditional ones erodes.

Treasuries Under Strain

Political risk and legal uncertainty are now front and centre for U.S. markets. The looming Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s reciprocal tariffs could significantly widen the primary deficit and even open the door to litigation against the government. Add to that the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as Fed chair and the unresolved status of Lisa Cook—dismissed by Trump earlier this year and reinstated by court order—and you have a cocktail of risks that challenge the perception of Fed independence. When confidence in central bank autonomy wavers, traditional havens like Treasuries and dollar have understandably lost some of their shine. That’s exactly what we’re seeing: term premium is back, and it’s biting the long end of the U.S curve.

Benchmark Futures Teeter Above Key Level

Source: TradingView

Rejected comprehensively at the influential 50DMA last week, U.S. 10-year Treasury note futures have spent the period since sliding lower, leaving the contract teetering at 114’20’0 less than 24 hours out from the Fed’s December FOMC meeting. 114’20’0 has acted as support and resistance for lengthy periods in 2025, underlining its importance for medium-term directional risks.

With RSI (14) pushing lower below 50, downside is favoured over upside, especially with MACD confirming the bearish signal. Should we see an extension of the unwind through 114’20’0, a retest of the 200DMA comes into view and, beyond that, the intersection of 113’16’0 support and the uptrend running from the January lows.

If the bearish move stalls at 114’20’0, the 50DMA may be targeted by bulls looking for a retracement, although price action beneath 115’00’0 should be monitored given there were buyers lurking beneath it for periods in November. It may therefore revert to offering resistance. 

30-Year Bond Futures: A Warning Signal

Source: TradingView

Providing a warning on what may be on the way for benchmark Treasury futures, U.S. 30-year bond futures broke beneath the key 200-day moving average earlier this week, pointing to increased risk of yields lifting further for this key anchor for U.S. mortgage rates. While it’s not textbook, the breakdown through the neckline from what resembles a head-and-shoulders pattern over the past three months adds to the sense that we could see more downside for price, putting 117’28 and the May uptrend in focus in the near term. A break of the latter would open the door for a far deeper flush, pointing to the possibility of underlying 30-year yields topping 5% again.

RSI (14) and MACD continue to deliver bearish signals, favouring downside over upside. Without a subsequent lift in 30-year inflation breakevens to accompany rising yields, the broader macro signal would point to increased term premium being demanded by traders to hold long-dated U.S. government debt. That means greater compensation to account for perceived risks.

Precious Metals: Alternative Havens?

The acceleration in the bullish move for both gold and silver kicked off in late August, the exact moment Donald Trump first began threatening Lisa Cook’s tenure as Fed governor. That timing is hard to ignore. It feeds the view that the surge in precious metals, alongside the move in rates, at least partially reflects concern over the Fed’s independence.

Source: TradingView

Coiling price action within an ascending triangle eventually resulted in a major breakout for silver above $54.50 resistance, sending the price surging above $60. While RSI (14) and MACD sit in extremely overbought territory on the weekly timeframe, convention suggests there could still be more left in the tank for silver, even with stretched positioning. The price action in silver may also be relevant for gold given similarities in its setup prior to the breakout.

Source: TradingView

Like silver, gold saw an acceleration in the bullish move from late August, before topping out and retracing beneath $4,000, then resuming its push higher. Now sitting beneath the October highs within an ascending triangle, bullish breakout risk is something to monitor as we head towards year-end.

$4,245 is the level to watch overhead in the near term, having capped bullion twice in November. RSI (14) and MACD are overbought and showing signs of waning topside strength, but the overall momentum signal still favours bullish setups over bearish. It’s more a cautionary message to bulls than an outright warning that bears are gaining control.

Event Risk Looms in Early 2026

With the back end of the U.S. curve selling off into key monetary and political events, the traditional safe-haven playbook may be in the process of being rewritten. That might explain why precious metals are carrying the haven torch right now. If Fed independence remains in question and legal risks materialise, we may see continued stress in Treasuries and a sustained bid for precious metals as we move into 2026.