Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Defends Key Support- Range Breakout Ahead
Gold is rebounding from a major support zone. This level could determine whether the broader trend holds or breaks.
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Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels
- XAU/USD has rebounded after a sharp selloff, holding a critical support zone.
- Price is consolidating just above support as the May opening range takes shape- breakout pending.
- A break below support would signal a deeper correction while a break above near-term resistance would open the door for the next leg higher.
- Event risk ahead: Iran war negotiations / headlines, CPI & PPI
- Resistance 4894, 5025 (key), 5279– Support 4493-4540 (key), 4319, 4098-4112
Gold is attempting to stabilize after a sharp decline, with XAU/USD rebounding from a pivotal support zone that could define the broader trend. This level has emerged as a key inflection point, where a sustained hold would support a recovery scenario, while a break would signal a deeper correction. The focus now is on how price reacts at this threshold as the May opening range gets underway. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Technical Forecast we noted that XAU/USD had, “snapped a four-week winning streak with XAU/USD trading just below resistance at the record high-week close. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 4493 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 4894 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.” Gold dropped more than 7.7% off those highs with price briefly registering an intraday low at 4501 this week before rebounding sharply.
The rally extended more than 5.8% off the weekly low before exhausting at the median-line late in the week. The May opening range is taking shape just above key support and the immediate focus is on a breakout of this week’s range for guidance.
Key support remains unchanged at 4493-4540- a region defined by the yearly low-week close (LWC), the April low, the 2025 high-close, and the 61.8% retracement of the October rally. A break / weekly close below this key pivot zone would threaten another bout of losses for the U.S. Dollar. Subsequent support rests with the yearly open at 4319 and broader bullish invalidation at the 4098-4112- a region defined by the yearly low, the 52-week moving average, and the October high-week reversal close (HWC). Note that the 25% parallel converges on this level over the next few weeks- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
A topside breach above the median-line exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the record high-week close (HWC) at 4894 and the 61.8% retracement of the January decline at 5025. Note that the October trendline (red) converges on this level over the next few weeks and a breach / close above would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and potential resumption of the broader uptrend.
Bottom line: Gold defended pivotal support last week with the May opening range taking shape just above- look for the breakout to offer guidance here. From a trading standpoint, the outlook remains unchanged- losses would need to be limited to 4493 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 4894 still needed to fuel the next major leg of rally.
Keep in mind we get the release of key inflection data next week with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Produce Price Index (PPI) on tap. Watch the war headlines here and keep your eyed on the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
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