Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Plunges to Key Support- Inflection Risk Builds
USD/CAD is testing a critical support zone after a sharp decline. The reaction here could define the next directional move.
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Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels
- USD/CAD plunged off the yearly high with the bulls attempting to snap a three-week losing streak (now unchanged for the week).
- Price is testing a major pivot zone at confluent uptrend support- risk for inflection
- A break below support would signal a larger trend reversal and deeper downside risk while a hold could trigger a near-term rebound after the recent selloff.
- Major event risk on tap: FOMC & BoC interest rate decisions, US Core PCE
- Resistance 1.3725/33, 1.3799-1.3826 (key), 1.3978 – Support 1.3617 (key), 1.3563, 1.3494
USD/CAD has come under sustained pressure following a sharp reversal from recent highs, with price now testing a key support zone that could shape the near-term outlook. The pullback reflects a shift in momentum after the prior advance, bringing the focus to whether this level can stabilize the decline. The reaction at support will be critical in determining whether the move extends into a deeper correction or gives way to a larger recovery. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CAD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CAD had broken above pivotal resistance and that, “From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 1.3724 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a weekly close above 1.3812 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. Look to reduce long exposure / raise protective stops on a rally towards 1.3889-1.3929..” Price briefly registered an intraday high at 1.3967 the following week before reversing sharply lower.
A decline of more than 2.6% off the yearly high is responding to confluent support this week with USD/CAD attempting to snap a three-week decline at the yearly low-week close (LWC) at 1.3617. Note that the lower parallel (blue) and the 2023 trendline (red) converge on this level over the next few weeks and the focus is on a reaction off this mark.
A break / daily close below this threshold would invalidate the January uptrend and threaten another bout of accelerated losses for the Greenback. Subsequent support objectives are eyed at the 2026 low close at 1.3563 and the 2024 August low close / yearly low at 1.3482/94.
Initial weekly resistance is now eyed at the yearly open and the 2025 low-week close (LWC) at 1.3725/33. Key resistance stands at 1.3799-1.3826- a region defined by the 52-week moving average and the 61.8% retracement of the March decline. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a breach above the March 2025 trendline needed to suggest a more significant breakout is underway.
Bottom line: USD/CAD is testing major support here on the back of a three-week selloff from the yearly high- risk for price inflection ahead. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to this week’s low IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3733 needed to suggest a more significant medium-term low is in place.
Keep in mind we get the release of the FOMC and Bank of Canada rate decisions tomorrow. While both central banks are widely expected to leave rates unchanged, the focus will be on the accompanying commentary with respect to the impact higher energy prices is having on the outlook for inflation and monetary policy. We also get a key inflation update later in the week with US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures on tap into the close of April on Thursday. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly close for guidance here. I’ll publish an updated Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
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