Swiss Franc Forecast: USD/CHF Rally Hits Yearly High- Breakout Levels in Sight

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Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels

• USD/CHF has rallied more than 5% off the yearly low, breaking the January downtrend
• Price is now testing pivotal resistance at the yearly high- break above resistance would signal a broader trend reversal and continued upside
• Failure here would keep the broader multi-year downtrend intact- risk for inflection
• US Non-Farm Payrolls on tap into extended holiday weekend
• Resistance 8041, 8103 (key), 8214 – Support 7927, 7875, 7769/72 (key)

USD/CHF has extended its recovery from multi-year lows, with price now pressing into a key resistance zone that could define the next phase of the move. The advance reflects improving near-term momentum, but the broader outlook remains sensitive to how price reacts at current levels. A sustained push higher would signal a shift in trend dynamics, while a rejection could keep the pair vulnerable to a pullback within the broader range. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Swiss Franc Technical Forecast (February) we noted that USD/CHF was ranging just below resistance and that, “the immediate focus is on a breakout to offer guidance in the weeks ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 7874 IF price is heading lower on this stretch…” The range resolved higher last month with a breakout stretching more than 5.7% off the yearly low. The advance broke through the yearly open pivot zone with the bulls testing resistance this week at the objective yearly high at 8041. Note that the medina-line of the 2023 pitchfork converges on this threshold over the next few weeks with the 52-week moving average just below near 8005.

Initial weekly support now rests with the yearly open at 7927 and is backed by the 38.2% retracement of the advance off the yearly low at 7875. Bullish invalidation is now raised to the 2011 low-week close (LWC) and the 61.8% retracement at 7769/72. Note that the channel support converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and a break / weekly clos below would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend towards the 2011 low close at 7669.

A break above the median-line would expose the 61.8% extension of the 2022 decline at 8103- a topside breach / close above this key pivot zone is ultimately needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline at 8214.

Bottom line: USD/CHF has rallied into confluent resistance at the yearly high with weekly momentum reaching the highest levels since February 2025- the immediate focus is on a reaction off this mark early in the month with the multi-week uptrend vulnerable while below. Price is poised to mark a weekly doji and highlights indecision here. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 7769 IF price is heading higher in the weeks again with a close above 8103 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

With the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report due tomorrow, volatility risks are elevated heading into the close of the week. Markets will be closed for Good Friday, increasing the potential for sharp moves or gaps on the reopen, especially with ongoing developments in the Iran conflict. Traders should stay nimble into the monthly open and watch weekly closes closely for directional cues. Review my latest Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex