British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Three-Day Rally Tests March Range High- Breakout Risk Builds

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British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• GBP/USD GBP/USD has extended its rebound for a third consecutive session (+1.74%), pressing into the upper boundary of the March opening range.
• The pair is now challenging layered resistance near the yearly and monthly opens, a zone that must be reclaimed to confirm a broader recovery.
• A sustained weekly close above this pivot would strengthen the bullish case, while failure here keeps downside risk toward lower support levels active.
• Resistance 1.3474/8 (key), 1.3634, 1.3749- Support 1.3339/72 (key), 1.3194, 1.3092

GBP/USD has extended its rebound for a third consecutive session, lifting price back toward the upper boundary of the March opening range after stabilizing off support. The advance now brings the pair into a pivotal zone near the yearly and monthly opens, an area that carries structural significance within the broader setup. While momentum has improved in the near term, confirmation is still required to validate a more sustained recovery. A decisive close above this threshold would reinforce bullish continuation, while failure to break higher would keep the range intact heading into the weekly close. Battle lines drawn on the GBP/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s British Pound Weekly Forecast we noted that GBP/USD had, “faltered into uptrend resistance last month with the February opening-range taking shape just below the 2022 high. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.3474 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3749 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.” Sterling broke lower two-weeks later with a decline of more than 4.5% off the yearly high exhausting into confluent support last week. A three-day rally is now testing resistance, and the focus is on a breakout of the March opening-range for guidance in the days ahead.

Weekly resistance is eyed with the objective yearly and monthly opens at 1.3474/83. A topside breach / weekly close above this pivot zone would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last week and a larger recovery is underway. The next major technical consideration is eyed with the 61.8% retracement of the year-to-date range at 1.3634. Note that the median-line converges on this level over the next few weeks and strength beyond this slope would be needed to mark uptrend resumption. Subsequent resistance eyed with the 2022 swing high near 1.3749.

Key weekly support remains at 1.3339/72- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the November advance, the January low, and the 2024 high-week close (HWC). Losses below this threshold would threaten a larger setback towards the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2025 advance at 1.3194. Note that the lower parallel converges on this level into the close of the month and a break / weekly close below would be needed to suggest a larger trend reversal is underway in British Pound. Subsequent support rests with the 2023 high-week close (HWC) and the November low-close at 1.3194/96.

 

Bottom line: GBP/USD rebounded off confluent support into the start of the month with the March opening-range now set just below the objective yearly open. Looking for a breakout in the days ahead. From at trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 1.3339 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a weekly close above 1.3783 needed to fuel the next leg of the Sterling recovery.

Keep in mind we get the release of key US inflation data this week with the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) on tap tomorrow and the January Personal Consumption Expenditures slated for Friday. With the surge in oil prices fueling inflation concerns, the focus will be on this latest pre-war update as traders continue to reprice the outlook for monetary policy. Fed Fund Futures are now pricing a 59% probability the next interest rate cut will be delivered in July. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest British Pound Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex