British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD 4-Week Rally Tests Major Resistance
GBP/USD extends its rally into key resistance after weeks of gains. The reaction here could define the next move heading into May.
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British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD Weekly Trade Levels
- GBP/USD has extended into a fourth week of gains following a rebound from trend support.
- Sterling rally now testing major Fibonacci resistance after multiple failed attempts.
- A sustained break higher would signal continuation of the broader uptrend while rejection could trigger a pullback within the current range.
- Event risk on tap into the monthly cross: US ISM data & Non-Farm Payrolls next week
- Resistance 1.3599, 1.3685 (key), 1.3749- Support 1.3474, ~1.3430 (key), 1.3328/42
GBP/USD continues to trade within a well-defined range after a multi-week advance, with price now testing a major resistance zone on the back of the Fed and Bank of England rate decisions. The sustained rally reflects improving near-term momentum, but the lack of a breakout keeps the focus on this key barrier. The next move will likely be determined by whether price can clear resistance or if the range holds into the start of May. Battle lines drawn on the GBP/USD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last British Pound Weekly Forecast we noted that GBP/USD had, “rebounded off uptrend support with a seven-day rally now approaching key resistance hurdles. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 1.36- losses should be limited to the 52-week moving average IF price is heading higher on this stretch..” GBP/USD briefly registered an intraday high at 1.3599 later that week with Sterling stuck in a well-defined range for the past two-weeks between the yearly open at 1.3474 and the 61.8% retracement of the year-to-date range at 1.3599. The immediate focus heading into the May open is on a breakout of this key range for guidance.
A topside breach / close above the April high exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the 2026 high-week close (HWC) at 1.3685 and the 2022 swing high at 1.3749. Note that the median-line converges on this level in late-May and a breach / close above this slope is needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance towards the yearly high at 1.3870.
A break lower from this range exposes the 52-week moving average, currently near ~1.3430. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached- ultimately, a weekly close below this level would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger pullback is underway. The next technical support considerations are eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the March advance and the January swing low at 1.3328/43. Key support remains unchanged at the yearly low-week close and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance at 1.3194.
Bottom line: The Sterling recovery is attempting to mark a fourth-weekly advance with GBP/USD trading just below technical resistance for a third consecutive week. The focus heading into May is on a breakout of this near-term range for guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the 52-week moving average IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above the 1.36-handle needed to fuel the next leg of this advance.
Keep in mind we are heading into the close of the month with an ongoing barrage of war headlines and key U.S. labor data on tap next week (ADP Wednesday and Non-Farm Payroll Friday). Stay nimble into the May opening-range and watch the weekly closes for guidance here. Review my latest British Pound Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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