nikkei 225 daily outlook fri 29 jan 2016 watch 16935 17290 maintain bullish bias 1795402016

(Click to enlarge charts)

What happened yesterday

The Japan 225 (proxy for the Nikkei 225 futures) has drifted lower ahead of the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s monetary policy decision out later today, 29 January 2016 @3.00 GMT. In the overnight U.S. session, the Index has broken below the lower boundary of the short-term ascending channel in place since 21 January 2016 but managed to hold above the short-term pivotal support at 16935.

Please click on this link for a recap on our previous daily outlook/strategy.

Key elements

• Based on the current price action, the Index has appeared to trace out an impending bullish “Inverse Head & Shoulders” chart configuration (as depicted by the light green shaded boxes) with its neckline resistance at 17290
• The Index is now testing the 16935 short-term support as per defined by the minor swing lows area since 27 January 2016.
• The next support rests at 16540/480 which is our medium-term pivotal support (click here for more details).
• The hourly (short-term) Stochastic oscillator has almost reached its oversold region which increases the probability of an potential upturn in price action at this juncture.

Key levels (1 to 3 days)

Pivot (key support): 16935

Resistances: 17290 & 17740/840

Next support: 16540/480 (medium-term pivot)

Conclusion

Maintain short-term bullish technical view as long as the 16935 pivotal support holds and a break above the 17290 neckline of the bullish “Inverse Head & Shoulders” is likely to add impetus for a further push up to target the 17740/840 resistance zone (medium-term first upside target as per highlighted in our latest weekly outlook/strategy).

On the other hand, failure to hold above the 16935 short-term pivotal support is likely to put the “snap-back” rally on hold to see a slide to retest the 26 January 2016 swing low area of 16540/480 which is also our medium-term pivotal support.

Disclaimer

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