rba day 0 761025 is the key resistance to watch on audusd 1845772017
<p>Later today at 0330 GMT, RBA will announce its latest monetary policy where the expectation is no change to its current record low policy interest […]</p>
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Later today at 0330 GMT, RBA will announce its latest monetary policy where the expectation is no change to its current record low policy interest rate at 1.5% for the sixth consecutive meeting.
The futures market only priced in a 3% chance of a 25bps cut for this meeting. Let us take a look at the AUD/USD from a technical analysis perspective
Short-term Technical outlook on AUD/USD
Key elements
- Since the swing low area of 0.7540 printed on last Friday, 03 March 2017, the AUD/USD has started to evolve into a bearish flag formation with its upper boundary now at 0.7625.
- The bearish flag resistance of 0.7625 also confluences with a Fibonacci cluster at 0.7610/25
- Based on Elliot Wave Principal and fractal analysis, the current up move in place since last Friday, 03 March 2017 late U.S. session is likely to be a minor degree corrective wave 4 with potential end target at 0.7610/25. Thereafter, the AUD/USD may resume its bearish impulsive down leg to trace out the minor degree wave 5 to complete an intermediate degree bearish down move cycle of a/ or 1/ in place since 23 February 2017 high of 0.7740.
- The hourly RSI oscillator remains bearish below its resisrtances.
Key levels (1 to 3 days)
Pivot (key resistance): 0.7610/25
Supports: 0.7540 & 0.7510
Next resistance: 0.76440 & 0.7654 (medium-term pivot)
Conclusion
As long as the 0.7610/25 short-term pivotal resistance holds, the AUD/USD is likely to see a continuation of its potential downleg to retest last Friday’s 03 March 2017 swing low area of 0.7540 before targeting the 0.7510 support (risk level for a potential multi-week rebound)
However, a clearance above 0.7625 may invalidate the preferred bearish tone to see a further squeeze up towards 0.7640 and even the medium-term pivotal resistance at 0.76540 (also the descending trendline from 23 February 2017 high. Click here for a recap on our medium-term outlook published last Friday, 03 March 2017.
Charts are from eSignal
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