S&P 500 Forecast: SPX muted ahead of Netflix earnings , US-China trade worries ease

US futures                                         

Dow futures -0.07%, S&P futures 0.03%  & Nasdaq futures 0.05%

In Europe                                                                        

FTSE 0.22% & DAX 0%

• Stocks steady after gains yesterday
• US shutdown & US-China trade worries ease
• Netflix reports after the open.
• Oil steadies near a 6-month low

US-China trade worries & regional bank worries calm

 U.S. Stocks are poised for a quiet positive open, following solid gains in the previous session, as earnings season gains momentum and U.S.-China trade worries ease.

US major indices closed over 1% higher on Monday, marking their best day in over a week, boosted by AI optimism and upbeat earnings expectations.

This week sees earnings from heavyweights including Tesla, IBM, Intel, and Ford, among others. The market will want to see solid fundamentals to support lofty valuations.

Sentiment has been boosted after White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said that the US government shutdown will likely end this week. This would mean the return of data that the market and the Fed have missed in recent weeks owing to the shutdown.

President Trump also struck a positive tone regarding trade with China, where he expects to reach a fair deal with the world's second-largest economy. Trump is set to meet with XI at next week's economic summit in South Korea.

Corporate news             

Netflix is due to report after the close with expectations of EPS of $6.96 on revenue of $11.51 billion. Advertising revenue is expected to rise fro $1.4 billion in 2024 to $2.9 billion in 2025 and reach $4.2 billion in 2026. The share price trades 40% higher this year, outperforming the broader market, but is still around 10% of its record high.

Coca-Cola is rising 3% after posting Q3 sales growth that beat Wall Street expectations, in a sign that consumers are still buying the company's beverages despite higher prices. Organic growth reached 6% and earnings per share also beat expectations. The share price is up 10% this year, although this is still underperforming the broader S&P 500.

Coca-Cola HBC, the bottling firm, also agreed to buy a controlling stake in Africa in a transaction valued at $2.6 billion.

General Motors' share prices jumped around 10% premarket after it lifted its outlook for the year and lowered its expected hit from tariffs. The firm now expects adjusted core profits to be between $12 to $13 billion compared to prior estimates of $10 billion and $12.5 billion. Tariffs are expected to hit the bottom line less than anticipated, with the expected hit of $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion, down from $4 to $5 billion previously.

GE Aerospace also added 1.3% after the company lifted its 2025 profit forecast.

S&P 500 forecast – technical analysis.

The S&P 500 recovered from the 6500 low, rebounding to current levels of 6730, just below the 6760 record high. The uptrend remains intact and buyers will look to rise above 6760 to fresh record levels towards 6800. Support is seen at 6500. A break below here creates a lower low.

FX markets – USD rises, GBP/USD slips

The U.S. dollar is rising to its highest level in almost a week on reduced fears over U.S.-China tensions and hopes of a resolution to the US government shutdown, as well as easing of US credit concerns.

EUR/USD is falling on USD strength, amid a quiet eurozone economic calendar. ECB president Christine Lagarde spoke, but did not touch on monetary policy. ECB will go into its blackout period on Thursday ahead of next week's ECB meeting. However, with inflation more or less in line with the ECB's target, no change in rates is expected.

The GBP/USD is falling after data showed that Britain's borrowing in the first half of the financial year was the highest on record except during the height of the pandemic. UK government borrowing was £99.8 billion in the period from April to September, keeping the heat on Chancellor Reeves ahead of November's budget.

Oil prices steady near  6-month low

Oil prices have fallen after falling to a six-month low in the previous session as concerns about trade tensions between the US and China, the world's top 2 oil consumers, and oversupply worries ease.

The International Energy Agency forecasts a huge surplus; however, factors such as oil inventories and fuel demand could help limit the downside.

API data, to be released later today, is expected to show that stockpiles rose last week, while gasoline and diesel inventories are expected to fall.