Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Charge Uptrend Support
The USD/CHF sell-off testing support at the September uptrend ahead of tomorrow’s US non-farm payrolls report. Battle lines drawn on the short-term technical charts.
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Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Short-term Trade Levels
- USD/CHF reversal from uptrend resistance now testing trend support-
- USD/CHF risk for price inflection into December open- US employment report on tap
- Resistance 8821/25, 8865, 8899 (key)- Support 8794, 8758, 8726/34 (key)
The US Dollar is poised to mark a three-day losing streak against the Swiss Franc with USD/CHF extending nearly 1.9% off the November highs. The decline takes price into the support at the September uptrend and the focus is on a reaction here early in the month- NFPs on tap tomorrow. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook we noted that USD/CHF was, “approaching initial uptrend support- looking for a reaction on test of the median-line. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 8700 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach / close above 8900 needed to mark resumption of the September uptrend.” Price briefly registered an intraday low at 8800 the following day before reversing sharply higher with the rally failing into the upper parallel before pulling back into the close of the month. The decline is now approaching multi-month uptrend support at the lower parallel and the focus is on a reaction into this slope this week.
Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView
A closer look at Swisse price action shows USD/CHF trading within the confines of a proposed descending pitchfork extending off the November highs with the median-line seen just below support at last week’s low near 8794. A break / close below this slope would threaten a larger breakdown towards subsequent support objectives at the 2021 low at 8758 and the 8726/34- a region defined by the 100% extension of the recent decline and the 38.2% retracement of the September advance (area of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached). Ultimately, a break / close below the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range / October high at 8698/99 would be needed to suggest a more significant high was registered last month / a larger trend reversal is underway.
Initial resistance is eyed with the 200-day moving average / 2021 yearly open / June low at 8821/26 and is backed by the highlighted slope confluence near ~8865. A breach / daily close above the 61.8% retracement at 8900 is once again needed to mark uptrend resumption – subsequent resistance objectives seen at the May low at 8988 and the 78.6% retracement / 2024 high week close (HWC) at 9042/45.
Bottom line: The USD/CHF reversal off resistance is now testing support at the September uptrend- looking for inflection into this zone over the next few days with the weekly range intact just above. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to the upper parallel (8865) IF price is heading for a larger correction with a close below the median-line needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.
Keep in mind we are in the early throws of the December opening-range with US non-farm payroll data on tap tomorrow and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) interest rate decision slate for next week. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Swiss Franc Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.
USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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