Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Bulls Relent at Resistance
USD/CHF reversed off uptrend resistance with the bulls now searching support within the September uptrend. Battle lines drawn on the short-term technical charts.
Share this:
Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Short-term Trade Levels
- USD/CHF rally responds to technical resistance- risk for larger bull-market correction
- USD/CHF initial support now in view into the 200-day moving average- risk for price inflection
- Resistance 8899 (key), 8988, 9042/45- Support ~8819/26, 8758, 8698-8709 (key)
The US Dollar snapped a five-day winning streak on Friday with USD/CHF reversing off confluent uptrend resistance. Although the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable to a larger correction within the multi-month uptrend. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Swiss Fanc Short-term Outlook we noted that USD/CHF was testing a major pivot zone ahead of the US elections / the Fed rate decision with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below technical resistance around the 87-handle. The US Dollar ripped higher the following day with a topside breach unleashing a rally of more than 3.5% off the November low.
The rally exhausted into Fibonacci resistance last week at the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range around the 89-handle- note that pitchfork resistance also converges on this threshold and further highlights its technical significance. Daily momentum is now threatening a break back from overbought territory and the broader September rally remains vulnerable while below this threshold.
Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView
A closer look at Swissie price action shows USD/CHF reversing off the upper parallel with precision last week with the pullback now approaching initial support at the 200-day moving average / June low / 2021 yearly open at 8819/27- note that the median-line converges on this threshold over the next few days. A break / close below this slope would threaten a larger correction within the multi-month uptrend with subsequent support seen at the 2021 low at 8758 and the 38.2% retracements at 8698-8709- we’ll reserve this threshold as our bullish invalidation level.
A topside breach / close above 8900 is needed to mark uptrend resumption with such a scenario exposing subsequent resistance objectives at the May low near 8988 and the 78.6% retracement / 2024 high-week close (HWC) at 9042/45- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: The USD/CHF breakout has extended into / responded to confluent technical resistance with the pullback now approaching initial uptrend support- looking for a reaction on test of the median-line. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 8700 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach / close above 8900 needed to mark resumption of the September uptrend.
Keep in mind the economic docket is rather light until next week’s key US inflation data- watch the weekly closes here. Review my latest Swiss Franc Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.
USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts
- British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD in Freefall- Support Ahead
- Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Breakdown Searches for Support
- US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Trump Bump Extends into Resistance
- Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Bears Go for the Break
- Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Trump Rally Faces Fed
- Gold Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Plunges on Trump Victory- Fed on Tap
- Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Stalls into US Election, Fed
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Screams Sentiment Extreme Into Fed, CPI
AUD/USD rebounds despite record bearish futures positioning, with Australian Q3 CPI and the Fed meeting threatening to trigger another short squeeze.
EUR/USD weekly outlook: FOMC and ECB to set the tone
The current backdrop is modestly bearish. On Friday, the EUR/USD closed modestly lower, down for the third consecutive day. The pair also posted a weekly decline after staging a modest recovery attempt in the previous week. Out of the past 8 weeks, the EUR/USD has fallen on 6 occasions. There is not much supporting factors for the single currency right now. So, the upside remains capped.
S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Forecast: Nasdaq Selloff Deepens as Dow Rally Stalls 10 24 2026
A failed S&P breakout and looming Nasdaq support test raise the stakes for next week’s Fed decision and October’s monthly close.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.