US Dollar, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks

• Technical trade setups we are tracking into the start of the week on the USD Majors, commodities, and equity indices.
• Next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, October 26 at 8:30am ET
• Event risk this week: US, Eurozone & UK PMI data
• Review the latest Video Updates or Stream Live on my YouTube playlist

In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), Bitcoin (BTC/USD), S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), and Dow Jones (DJI). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly open. The assets are chaptered on the recording for your convenience.

British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

Notes: Sterling broke the October opening range last week with the rally extending nearly 1.8% off the monthly lows. The bulls have now defended critical support for a seventh time this month at the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance and the 2026 low-week close at 1.3194. The breakout exhausted into the close last week near the 38.2% retracement of the August decline at 1.3343 – this level now defines the weekly opening range high.

Initial support rests with the May low at 1.3302 and is backed by near-term bullish invalidation at the 23.6% retracement / October open at 1.3264. Losses below this threshold would be needed to invalidate the recent breakout with key support unchanged at 1.3194.

A topside breach of the weekly range would be needed to mark resumption of the near-term uptrend. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 50% retracement at 1.3406 backed by the 200-day moving average (~1.3433), and the February low day close / yearly open at 1.3465/74.

Bottom line: A breakout of the monthly range keeps the focus on a possible exhaustion high into the close of the month. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 1.3264 IF sterling is heading higher on this stretch with a breach / daily close above 1.3343 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.

GBP/USD event risk centers on the U.K. labor-market report Tuesday and September CPI on Wednesday, with the inflation release carrying the greater weight as markets reassess expectations for the Bank of England’s November meeting. A firmer wage or inflation reading would reinforce the case for tighter policy and support sterling, while another downside surprise could revive rate-cut expectations and weigh on the pound. U.S. housing data and preliminary October PMIs are also due, but the Federal Reserve is now in its blackout period ahead of the October 27–28 decision, leaving incoming data to drive the dollar side of the pair.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: USD/CAD broke below the October range lows last week with the decline extending 1.6% off the yearly / monthly high. Price is trading into support today at the 38.2% retracement of the August advance at 1.4083. A proposed descending pitchfork off the highs may be in play here but it’s too early to rely on just yet.

Initial resistance is eyed a the weekly open and November high at 1.4041 with key resistance steady at the June high week close / high day close (HWC/HDC) at 1.4194-1.4202. Note that this level converges on the 75% parallel over the next few days and a break / close above would be needed to invalidate this near-term downtrend. Critical resistance remains unchanged at the 61.8% retracement of the 2025 decline at 1.4292.

A break / close below Fibonacci support is needed to mark downtrend resumption towards the July low day close (LDC) and the 50% retracement at 1.4011/16- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: USD/CAD has broken a multi-week range, and the outlook remains tilted to the downside into the close of the month. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to the 1.42-handle IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a break / daily close below 1.4083 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.

USD/CAD event risk is front-loaded this week after Canada’s softer-than-expected September CPI report reduced expectations for a Bank of Canada hike at next week’s meeting. Although headline inflation edged up to 3.1%, the underlying measures cooled to a six-year low, suggesting that the increase was largely energy-driven rather than evidence of broadening price pressure. With no major Canadian releases remaining, the focus shifts to Friday’s preliminary October US PMIs. Firmer U.S. data could offer some support to USD/CAD by keeping Treasury yields elevated, while softer figures would reinforce the market’s dovish Fed expectations and leave the pair vulnerable to a deeper pullback. Watch the weekly close for guidance here.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: USD/CHF reversed off major resistance last week at the 2024 swing low and the 1.618% extension of the August advance near 8375/87. The decline has now broken below the late-August uptrend (red) and extended more than 2.1% off the monthly / yearly high with price turning just ahead of key support last week at 8200/14- a region defined by the 100% extension of the late-January rally, the July high, and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline.

The focus is on this near-term recovery with initial resistance now in view at the 38.2% retracement of the recent decline near 8286. Near-term bearish invalidation is eyed at the upper parallel which converges on the 61.8% retracement at 8328.

A break below the 82-handle would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place, and a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent support rests with the September opening range highs at 8157 backed by the August high close and the November high at 8125.

Bottom line: USD/CHF has rebounded just ahead of key support after breaking multi-week uptrend. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 8327 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 8200 needed to fuel the next leg lower in price. Event risk is limited out of Switzerland this week, so look for the US Dollar to drive price action this week.

Economic Calendar – Key Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex