US Dollar Majors, Bitcoin, Gold, Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

 

Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks

• Technical trade setups we are tracking into the start of the week on the USD Majors, commodities, and equity indices.
• Next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, September 28 at 8:30am ET
• Event risk this week: EU, UK & US PMI data and the Trump / XI meeting on Thursday
• Review the latest Video Updates or Stream Live on my YouTube playlist

In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), Bitcoin (BTC/USD), S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), and Dow Jones (DJI). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly open. The assets are chaptered on the recording for your convenience.

US Dollar Index Price Chart – USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DXY on TradingView

Notes: The U.S. Dollar Index is testing a key pivot zone at the August 20204 high and the 2024 low close at 100.26/35. The breakout of the September opening range last week keeps the focus on a late-month high, but the rally does need to clear this key zone on a close basis to keep the immediate advance viable in the days ahead.

Initial support rests with the channel line off the monthly low and is backed by 99.80/86- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the June decline and the September opening range high. Broader bullish invalidation is now raised to the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range and the January high at 99.41/49.

Initial resistance is eyed at the 61.8% retracement / September high at 100.56. A breach / daily close above this threshold is needed to mark resumption of the monthly uptrend with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at 101.11 and the yearly high-day close at 101.59.

Bottom line: The Dollar rally has extended nearly 2% off the monthly low with the index testing a pivotal resistance near 8-week highs. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 99.80 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 100.56 needed to fuel the next leg higher in the index.

Keep in mind the economic docket is rather light this week with PMI data out of the Eurozone, UK and US highlighting event risk this week. Markets will also be closely watching developments out of Washington, D.C., with President Trump hosting Chinese President Xi Jinping for a state visit on Thursday. Attention will center on any progress—or renewed friction—surrounding trade, tariffs, rare-earth and critical-mineral supply chains, investment, and AI, all of which could have implications for the U.S. dollar and broader risk sentiment.

British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

Notes: Sterling broke below key support last week with the decline rebounding off the 61.8% retracement of the June advance on Friday at 1.3345. Initial resistance is now eyed back at the 50% retracement tat 1.3408 with bearish invalidation now lowered to the February low-day close (LDC) and the yearly open at 1.3465/74.

A break lower from here exposes the May low at 1.3302 backed by the 78.6% retracement at 1.3255. Both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: GBP/USD has broken below multi-month uptrend support with the decline holding a well-defined channel off the August highs. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.3474 IF Sterling is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.3345 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.

Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView

Notes: Bitcoin broke through the September opening range highs today with BTC/USD extending to the highest levels since January. Weekly momentum has now stretched to a twelve-month high with daily RSI breaking into overbought conditions near 73.

Initial resistance objectives are now eyed at the yearly open near 87,496 with the next major technical consideration eyed at the 2026 high-day close (HDC) and the 2025 June lows at 96,942-98,240. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Initial support now rests back at the 2025 low-week close (LWC) and the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the record highs at 83,712/916 and is backed by the May high / high-day close at 81,447-82,193. The technical outlook remains tilted to the topside while above this threshold with broader bullish invalidation now raised to the objective monthly open at 78,571. Note that the August trendline converges on this zone over the next few days and losses below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.

Bottom line: The focus is the weekly close with respect to 83,916. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 81,447 IF Bitcoin is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 87,496 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Economic Calendar – Key Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex