US Dollar, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks

• Technical trade setups we are tracking into the start of the week on the USD Majors, commodities, and equity indices.
• Next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, June 29 at 8:30am ET
• Review the latest Video Updates or Stream Live on my YouTube playlist

In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), and Dow Jones (DJI). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly open. The assets are chaptered on the recording for your convenience.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

Notes: USD/JPY is testing major resistance into the start of the week at the 2024 high-day close (HDC) / high at 161.68/95. Price reversed sharply off this key pivot zone shortly after the webinar today with a 0.53% drop from the highs testing median-line support early in the session. Possible intervention?

A slip below this slope exposes pivotal support near the 1.618% extension of the January advance and the 2024 high-week close (HWC) at 160.37/74. Note that the 25% parallel converges on this zone over the next few days and a break below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger reversal is underway. Broader bullish invalidation remains with the monthly open and the 38.2% retracement of the May advance at 159.27/29.

Note that the 75% parallel converges on resistance today and a breach / close above 161.95 would be needed to mark resumption of the uptrend. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the upper parallel (currently near ~162.75) and the 1.618% extension at 163.33.

Bottom line: USD/JPY is responding to pivotal resistance with daily momentum trading just below 70. Risk for inflection here with the intervention threat looming. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 160.37 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 161.95 needed fuel the next major leg of the rally.

Keep in mind we get the release of key U.S. inflation data on Thursday (PCE) with Tokoy CPI on tap into the close of the week. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close for guidance. Review my latest Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Notes: Euro is approaching confluent downtrend support at 1.1405/17- a region defined by the July low close and the yearly low-day close (LDC). Note that the lower parallel converges on this threshold over the next few days and focus into the start of the week is on a potential reaction of this key pivot zone.

Resistance is eyed at the 1.618% extension of the April decline and the November low-day close (LDC) at 1.1483/92. The median-line converges on this threshold into Thursday and a breach / daily close above would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger rebound is underway. Broader bearish invalidation is now lowered to the January / May swing lows and the 61.8% retracement of the March rally at 1.1576/78.

A break / daily close below this pivotal support zone would threaten another bout of accelerated declines. Subsequent support objectives rest with the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance at 1.1355 and the 2023 swing high at 1.1276.

Bottom line: Euro is approaching confluent downtrend support, and the focus is on possible inflection into the yearly low. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 1.1492 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1405 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline. Keep in mind we get the release of key Eurozone inflation data tomorrow morning.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView

Notes: USD/CAD has surged more than 2.7% since the start of the month with the rally threatening to snap a seven-day winning streak today. Price is responding to confluent uptrend resistance at the 2024 November swing high at 1.4178. Although daily momentum remains in overbought territory, intraday extremes have pulled back and the while technical outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable below this level.

Initial support rests with the November high-day close (HDC) at 1.4109 and is backed by the 100% extension of the January advance at 1.4035. Note that the 25 % parallel converges on this level over the next few days. Broader bullish invalidation remains with the 2022 high and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline at 1.3978/83. A topside breach / daily close above the upper parallel would threaten uptrend resumption with the next major resistance objective eyed at the 61.8% retracement near 1.4292.

Bottom line: USD/CAD is testing confluent uptrend resistance into the start of the week. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited to 1.4035 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above parallel resistance needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Economic Calendar – Key Data Releases

  

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex