British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Recovery Builds Toward Key Resistance Test

British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• GBP/USD has rebounded from the May lows and is now testing the 52-week moving average.
• The recovery is building toward major resistance zones defined by the yearly open and key Fibonacci retracements.
• A breakout above resistance would signal resumption of the broader uptrend while failure would keep focus on a breakout of the monthly range.
• Resistance ~1.3428, 1.3474, 1.3522 (key)- Support 1.3302 (key), 1.3194, 1.3092

GBP/USD has recovered from the May lows and is now challenging the 52-week moving average, improving the near-term technical outlook after last month’s sharp pullback. The advance is building toward a more significant resistance zone defined by the yearly open and Fibonacci resistance levels, where recent advances have previously failed. The focus heading into next week’s Fed and Bank of England decisions is on whether buyers can sustain momentum into resistance or if the recovery begins to stall before reaching this key hurdle. Battle lines drawn on the GBP/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s British Pound Weekly Forecast we noted that a GBP/USD was approaching pivotal resistance and that, “From a trading standpoint, the losses would need to be limited to 1.3266 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3522 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.” Sterling turned lower the following week with a 1.5% decline registering an intraweek low at 1.3306 before rebounding last week.

The recovery takes price back into the 52-week moving average near 1.3428 with major resistance levels still eyed at the yearly open at 1.3474 and the 61.8% retracement of the April decline at 1.3522. Note that the 25% parallel of the November pitchfork converges on this level over the next few weeks and breach / weekly close above is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend towards the 2025 & 2026 high-week closes (HWC) at 1.3648/85.

Weekly support remains with the May low at 1.3302- note that the lower parallel converges on this level into the close of the month and a break / close below this slope would invalidate the November uptrend. Subsequent support rests with the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance and the yearly low-week close at 1.3194 and the 2023 high-week close (HWC) / November low-close at 1.3092/96.

 

Bottom line: The Sterling recovery has stretched into pivotal resistance and marks the first test for the bulls. From a trading standpoint, the losses would need to be limited to 1.3266 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3522 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Keep in mind the Fed is on tap Wednesday with the Bank of England rate decision slated for the following day. While both central banks are widely expected to leave rates unchanged, traders will be focused on the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections for updated forecasts on growth, employment, and inflation. This will be Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair and with an Iran deal now in the works, investors will be assessing the central bank’s outlook for inflation and its potential impact on monetary policy. As of now, traders are pricing in 55% probability the Fed will hike rates by the end of the year. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest British Pound Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex