USD/CHF Outlook: EUR/CHF offers a bullish blueprint

• EUR/CHF breakout puts USD/CHF on watch
• Break above 0.8150 targets 0.8250 initially

Given the euro area and Switzerland face many of the same energy security and terms of trade pressures, the breakout in EUR/CHF on Wednesday looks more technical than fundamental. With a major surprise from the ECB later today unlikely, and nothing of consequence on the Swiss or US economic calendars to trouble the scorers, it raises the question of whether USD/CHF could deliver a similar breakout. Outside of the ECB, the main threat to that view would be a positive development from the Gulf that sees energy prices subside, encouraging renewed demand for the franc.

EUR/CHF breaks higher

Source: TradingView

EUR/CHF spent months bumping up against resistance around 0.9268. There was one false breakout in the middle of July before the pair retreated to uptrend support running from the early-July lows, finding buyers around the 50-day simple moving average. Wednesday finally delivered the decisive breakout above 0.9268, with the pair pushing into resistance around 0.9300, a level that saw plenty of work on either side back in January. That's the key focal point today.

The broader technical backdrop remains constructive. The pair continues to trade above the key medium and long-term moving averages, while momentum indicators remain supportive, with RSI (14) holding above 63 and MACD maintaining a bullish crossover. That leaves the bias favouring buying dips and bullish breakouts. A convincing move above 0.9300 would open the door for longs to be established with a stop beneath the level for protection, initially targeting 0.9350, the swing high from January 14. Beyond that, minor resistance is located at 0.9370, followed by 0.9400.

Should 0.9300 once again prove too much of a hurdle, a pullback towards former resistance at 0.9268 may see it revert to support. Below that, uptrend support from the early-July lows kicks in around 0.9245 today. A break beneath both would weaken the near-term bullish outlook.

USD/CHF set to follow?

Source: TradingView

EUR/CHF's breakout should be of interest to USD/CHF traders, given the technical structure is remarkably similar. After rebounding from a minor uptrend running from the lows set in the middle of July, USD/CHF is once again testing resistance around 0.8150, a level that has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance over the past year. There was one failed attempt to break above the level in mid-July, but the pair is once again knocking on the door.

The broader technical backdrop remains constructive. The price continues to trade above the key medium and long-term moving averages, all of which retain a positive slope, pointing to the potential for an eventual breakout that could open the door for a move towards 0.8250. 

The one note of caution comes from RSI (14), which has been making lower highs despite remaining comfortably above the neutral 50 level. Ideally, traders would like to see RSI break that downtrend and print a fresh high to provide greater confidence that momentum is strengthening once again. Even so, the broader technical picture, including the bullish MACD configuration, continues to favour upside over downside.

A convincing break above 0.8150 would favour buying the breakout, with a stop beneath the level for protection, initially targeting 0.8250. Above there, the next level of note comes in at 0.8333, an area that acted as both support and resistance through April, May and June last year.

On the downside, should 0.8150 continue to cap, the minor uptrend from the mid-July lows provides the first line of support, coming in around 0.8088 today. A break beneath that would suggest the recent sideways range remains intact, shifting the focus back towards the lower boundary at 0.8013.