Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) Techs: Aussie Bulls Tempt a Larger Turn

AUD/USD Talking Points:

• AUD/USD has shown indecision on the past two monthly bars, which isn’t a very common occurrence on the longer time frame.
• Proximity to key swing lows makes that scenario of interest for possible topside swing setups.
• More recently, AUD/USD has held up relatively well as USD-strength has come rushing back. In the video and article below, I look at shorter-term support structure that, if respected, could allow for bullish swing setups.

AUD/USD was hit hard in the 4^th quarter of last year, as USD-strength came back online in a big way. The pair was plummeting into the yearly open, but so far in 2025, bears haven’t had much room to run and from the monthly chart, there’s been a clear show of indecision.

I think the .6000 handle still looms large here as there’s been very few historical tests below that big figure. There was the instance around Covid, of course, and in that case, the pair held up just ten pips above the next major psychological level down of .5500. The .6000 test didn’t last for long, either, as the pair quickly snapped above and ran all the way until prices finally found resistance at the .7750 level.

That price was in-play for seven months – and bulls were unable to evoke a single monthly close above that level. And that failure eventually led into a bearish swing as prices slalomed on the way down towards that .6000 level again. But, this time, sellers suddenly got shy as the price got near, and in October of 2022, a low was set at .6170, a price that remains relevant today.

 

AUD/USD Monthly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

AUD/USD Weekly

 

The bounce from .6170 was able to once again test above the .7000 handle, but not for very long. There was a single monthly (and weekly) close above that price after the bounce, and that was in January of 2023, after which sellers attacked. The bearish engulf that pushed prices back-below led into a prolonged sell-off, which led to the 2023 low 100 pips above the prior year’s low, once again in October of that year.

The pair had held up fairly well after that, at least until the Q4 open last year. And as that larger round of USD-reversals began to show AUD/USD was not left unscathed, with another bearish engulfing candlestick on the weekly chart leading to a prolonged sell-off, that pushed all the way into the open of the New Year.

AUD/USD Weekly Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

AUD/USD

 

Those prices from the 2022 and 2023 swing lows retain some relevance today.

There was a single daily close below the 2022 low of .6170 after the 2025 open, and that led to a fast push up to a higher-high. The pullback from that again showed an element of support at .6170, with .6270 coming in as support after.

To date, bulls haven’t exactly been able to substantiate much run in the pair – but there has been the slowing of bearish pressure as sellers have shied away with those longer-term supports in the picture. And that’s the type of that that can eventually lead to a bullish reversal.

More recently, .6270 has helped to set the low so far this week; and from that, we can begin to set up a shorter-term backdrop that may allow for some strategy implementation.

 

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

AUD/USD Shorter-Term Strategy

 

At this point the situation is pretty clear, where sellers have started to stall but bulls haven’t exactly been able to take over yet. From a shorter-term basis, however, there may be an opening door for a larger reversal, especially if we see USD-weakness come back into the picture.

So far this week the USD has continued to show higher-highs and lows, and that’s impacted EUR/USD and GBP/USD: But, notably, AUD/USD has also been putting in higher-highs and lows. And from the four-hour chart we can see some recent support structure that could allow for bullish swing setups, drawing on that .6270 longer-term level to help with setting support.

That .6270 level was clearly in the picture earlier in March on two separate occasions. More recently, the Friday swing low last week held with respect to .6258, and that’s the level that bulls need to hold above to retain control. Ideally, support swings will remain above .6270 and even better, above the .6278 swing low from last night.

 

AUD/USD Four-Hour Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist

AUD/USD Talking Points:

• AUD/USD has shown indecision on the past two monthly bars, which isn’t a very common occurrence on the longer time frame.
• Proximity to key swing lows makes that scenario of interest for possible topside swing setups.
• More recently, AUD/USD has held up relatively well as USD-strength has come rushing back. In the video and article below, I look at shorter-term support structure that, if respected, could allow for bullish swing setups.

AUD/USD was hit hard in the 4^th quarter of last year, as USD-strength came back online in a big way. The pair was plummeting into the yearly open, but so far in 2025, bears haven’t had much room to run and from the monthly chart, there’s been a clear show of indecision.

I think the .6000 handle still looms large here as there’s been very few historical tests below that big figure. There was the instance around Covid, of course, and in that case, the pair held up just ten pips above the next major psychological level down of .5500. The .6000 test didn’t last for long, either, as the pair quickly snapped above and ran all the way until prices finally found resistance at the .7750 level.

That price was in-play for seven months – and bulls were unable to evoke a single monthly close above that level. And that failure eventually led into a bearish swing as prices slalomed on the way down towards that .6000 level again. But, this time, sellers suddenly got shy as the price got near, and in October of 2022, a low was set at .6170, a price that remains relevant today.

 

AUD/USD Monthly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

AUD/USD Weekly

 

The bounce from .6170 was able to once again test above the .7000 handle, but not for very long. There was a single monthly (and weekly) close above that price after the bounce, and that was in January of 2023, after which sellers attacked. The bearish engulf that pushed prices back-below led into a prolonged sell-off, which led to the 2023 low 100 pips above the prior year’s low, once again in October of that year.

The pair had held up fairly well after that, at least until the Q4 open last year. And as that larger round of USD-reversals began to show AUD/USD was not left unscathed, with another bearish engulfing candlestick on the weekly chart leading to a prolonged sell-off, that pushed all the way into the open of the New Year.

AUD/USD Weekly Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

AUD/USD

 

Those prices from the 2022 and 2023 swing lows retain some relevance today.

There was a single daily close below the 2022 low of .6170 after the 2025 open, and that led to a fast push up to a higher-high. The pullback from that again showed an element of support at .6170, with .6270 coming in as support after.

To date, bulls haven’t exactly been able to substantiate much run in the pair – but there has been the slowing of bearish pressure as sellers have shied away with those longer-term supports in the picture. And that’s the type of that that can eventually lead to a bullish reversal.

More recently, .6270 has helped to set the low so far this week; and from that, we can begin to set up a shorter-term backdrop that may allow for some strategy implementation.

 

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

AUD/USD Shorter-Term Strategy

 

At this point the situation is pretty clear, where sellers have started to stall but bulls haven’t exactly been able to take over yet. From a shorter-term basis, however, there may be an opening door for a larger reversal, especially if we see USD-weakness come back into the picture.

So far this week the USD has continued to show higher-highs and lows, and that’s impacted EUR/USD and GBP/USD: But, notably, AUD/USD has also been putting in higher-highs and lows. And from the four-hour chart we can see some recent support structure that could allow for bullish swing setups, drawing on that .6270 longer-term level to help with setting support.

That .6270 level was clearly in the picture earlier in March on two separate occasions. More recently, the Friday swing low last week held with respect to .6258, and that’s the level that bulls need to hold above to retain control. Ideally, support swings will remain above .6270 and even better, above the .6278 swing low from last night.

 

AUD/USD Four-Hour Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist