Bitcoin Outlook: The Cryptocurrency Attempts to Maintain a Bullish Bias Above $70K

It has begun to be a positive week for Bitcoin, as short-term price movements have accumulated two consecutive bullish sessions with gains of more than 5.00%, once again crossing above the $70,000 per BTC level. This reflects a renewed buying bias emerging in the short term.

However, it is important to note that buying pressure has partly rebounded due to a temporary sense of calm regarding the conflict in the Middle East, which has allowed for increased activity in BTC. In previous sessions, the same geopolitical scenario generated consistent indecision in Bitcoin’s price action, and if buying pressure fails to stabilize in the short term, it could once again give way to a phase of neutrality in the coming sessions.

Does a Sense of Relief Help BTC?

As the week progresses, although the conflict in the Middle East remains active, markets have begun to perceive a relative sense of calm or reduced immediate intensity, as the worst-case scenarios previously anticipated have not materialized.

The pressure observed days ago in oil prices, when WTI crude attempted to reach the $120 area, has steadily eased. This has partially reduced risk perception and allowed interest in risk assets such as Bitcoin to regain relevance in the short term.

In fact, a meaningful increase has begun to appear in key Bitcoin market metrics. Open Interest, which measures the total number of open long and short positions, has shown consistent growth toward the $22.1 billion level in total open positions, maintaining an upward slope in recent sessions. This indicates a greater inflow of positions into the BTC market.

What is relevant is that rising Open Interest alongside a rebound in Bitcoin’s price may signal not only increased activity but also a stronger presence of buying positions in the short term, reinforcing interest in the asset.

Source: Cryptoquant

In this context, the recent increase in open positions appears to be temporarily benefiting BTC and, as long as this dynamic persists, more consistent buying pressure could consolidate in the coming sessions.

However, any significant new developments in the Middle East conflict could once again increase risk perception. In that scenario, appetite for Bitcoin could weaken again amid rising uncertainty.

 

Confidence Remains Under Pressure

Currently, crypto market confidence indicators — specifically the Fear and Greed Index — continue to fluctuate around the 13-point area, remaining within “extreme fear” territory. This highlights that overall market confidence has not meaningfully recovered in recent sessions.

Source: Alternative.me

If the indicator fails to consolidate a stronger recovery, current buying pressure in BTC may lack sufficient foundation to sustain further advances. Should fear persist, episodes of weakness similar to those observed in previous weeks could reemerge.

 

Technical Outlook for Bitcoin

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• Recent recovery remains insufficient to break the downtrend: Despite the recent rebound, bullish price movements are still not strong enough to invalidate the descending trendline that has dominated the chart for several months. Structurally, the most relevant technical pattern remains the downward trend. While the recovery may lead to a more visible buying bias in the short term, it is not yet strong enough to confirm a structural shift toward a more consistent upward trend, especially as long as price fails to break above the broader descending trendline.
   

• RSI: Although the RSI has shown a consistent short-term rebound, it continues to fluctuate very close to the neutral 50 level, suggesting that average buying and selling momentum over the last 14 sessions remains balanced. As long as the RSI does not move decisively away from this zone, it may continue reflecting a meaningful phase of indecision.
   

• ADX: The ADX indicator maintains a downward slope and continues to move closer to the neutral 20 level, indicating that the average strength of price movements has weakened in recent sessions. If this behavior persists, it could reinforce the relevance of a consistent short-term indecision phase.
   

Key Levels:

• 73,400 – Key Resistance: Area aligned with the 50-period moving average. A sustained move above this level could strengthen the buying bias in upcoming sessions and potentially end the neutrality that has prevailed since February.
   
• 70,000 – Near-Term Barrier: Key psychological level and immediate resistance. If price fails to move decisively away from this area, a consistent sideways scenario could consolidate in the short term.
   
• 63,900 – Major Support: Area of recent lows and the main relevant bearish barrier. Sustained moves below this level would restore dominance to the broader downtrend in the coming weeks.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25