British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Breakout Stalls into Q4 Open
The British Pound breakout extended into initial resistance hurdles at fresh yearly highs. Battle lines drawn on the GBP/USD weekly technical chart heading into Q4.
Share this:
British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD Weekly Trade Levels
- British Pound September breakout stalls at initial resistance- outlook remains constructive
- GBP/USD immediate advance may be vulnerable into monthly cross- NFPs on tap
- Resistance 1.3414, 1.3500/15, 1.3671/85 (key)– Support 1.3091, 1.30, 1.2731/73 (key)
The British Pound marked a second weekly advance on Friday as the September opening-range breakout extended to fresh yearly highs. The rally was halted this week at technical resistance and although the broader outlook remains weighted to the topside, we note the risk for possible exhaustion / price inflection heading into the close of the month / quarter with bearish momentum divergence beginning to surface on tighter timeframes. These are the levels that matter on the GBP/USD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last British Pound Weekly Forecast we noted that GBP/USD had, “trading just below trend resistance with the September opening-range intact heading into the FOMC and BoE interest rate decisions. The immediate focus is on a breakout with the long-bias vulnerable sub-1.3273. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 1.2731 IF Sterling is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the median-line needed to mark uptrend resumption.” GBP/USD broke through resistance just two-days later with the advance extending more than 3.3% off the monthly low.
The rally stalled at initial resistance this week at the 78.6% retracement of the 2021 decline near 1.3414 – a topside breach / close above this threshold would expose subsequent objectives at the 2009 low / 2019 high at 1.3500/15 and 1.3671/85- a region defined by the 1.618% extension of the October advance and the 2022 high-week close (HWC). Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Initial weekly support now rests back at former resistance near 1.3273 (2021 LWC) and is backed by the 1.30-handle. Broader bullish invalidation now raised to the objective yearly open / February 2019 swing low at 1.2731/73.
Bottom line: The British Pound September breakout is testing initial hurdles here at Fibonacci resistance. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 1.3273 IF Sterling is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3414 needed to fuel the next leg in price.
Keep in mind GBP/USD is trading at fresh yearly highs heading into the close of the month / quarter with US Non-Farm Payrolls on tap Friday. A good time to reduce position size and re-adjust protective stops. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly closes for guidance here. Review my latest British Pound Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.
GBP/USD Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Weekly Technical Charts
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
Latest market news
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
EUR/USD weekly outlook: FOMC and ECB to set the tone
The current backdrop is modestly bearish. On Friday, the EUR/USD closed modestly lower, down for the third consecutive day. The pair also posted a weekly decline after staging a modest recovery attempt in the previous week. Out of the past 8 weeks, the EUR/USD has fallen on 6 occasions. There is not much supporting factors for the single currency right now. So, the upside remains capped.
S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Forecast: Nasdaq Selloff Deepens as Dow Rally Stalls 10 24 2026
A failed S&P breakout and looming Nasdaq support test raise the stakes for next week’s Fed decision and October’s monthly close.
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: AI earnings could overshadow the Fed and BoJ
AI sentiment has become a major driver of US Treasury yields and USD/JPY. With Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon reporting this week, central bank decisions may have competition for traders' attention.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.