Crude Oil Keeps the Geopolitical Bid the Dollar Index Lost
The U.S. dollar index is holding the uptrend line connecting its higher lows all year, while crude oil still carries a geopolitical risk premium. Razan Hilal, CMT, Market Analyst for Global Macro at StoneX Media, walks through the daily and monthly structure on both charts and what separates the two scenarios.
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The U.S. dollar index is holding the uptrend line connecting its higher lows all year, while crude oil still carries a geopolitical risk premium. Razan Hilal, CMT, Market Analyst for Global Macro at StoneX Media, walks through the daily and monthly structure on both charts and what separates the two scenarios.
Federal Reserve rate expectations for the September meeting sit close to evenly split, leaving the U.S. CPI report and the state of U.S.-Iran negotiations as the two catalysts capable of resolving the direction.
On the monthly timeframe the U.S. dollar index is trading in the middle of a four year descending channel, a zone that has framed every major move since 2022. WTI crude oil holds above the rejection zone that has capped it since March, keeping geopolitical risk priced into the barrel even as the dollar fades.
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