Crude Oil Week Ahead: 4-year Support, G-20 Meeting, Flash PMIs
Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil prices face mounting pressures between clean energy transitions, geopolitical risks, and surplus concerns for 2025. Prices are now testing a critical 4-year support zone, challenging the continuation of the broader downtrend.
Share this:
Key Events
- Oil ends the second week of November on a bearish note, down nearly 8% from monthly highs
- The IEA forecasts a 2025 surplus exceeding 1 million barrels per day (bpd)
- Chinese economic data remains weak, marking six consecutive months of declining oil consumption
- Global transitions to electric vehicles and renewables further pressure oil demand, with insights expected from Monday’s G20 meetings
- OPEC and IEA reports reinforce bearish oil outlooks for 2025
- Middle East conflicts persist, amplifying supply disruption risks
Balancing 2024 Upside Risks with 2025 Downside Concerns
As the global energy transition accelerates, declining Chinese oil demand and US fracking deregulations are intensifying bearish pressures on oil prices for 2025. Investors are hedging for both upside and downside risks: call options hedge geopolitical instability and potential supply disruptions in 2024, while put options reflect concerns over 2025 oversupply and lower demand.
OPEC Monthly Report
Highlights For the fourth consecutive month, OPEC has cut its demand growth forecasts, reducing 2024 estimates from 1.93 to 1.82 million bpd and 2025 projections from 1.64 to 1.54 million bpd. Overproduction by Iraq and Russia, alongside weak oil prices, has delayed planned production increases. OPEC’s production quotas will be reviewed during the December 1 meeting, and any quota increases for 2025 could further pressure prices downward.
Middle East Risks
Oil prices remain at a critical juncture, balanced between potential ceasefire agreements and ongoing supply disruption risks. A resolution on the horizon would allow oil to comfortably proceed with its downtrend below its 4-year support at 64. Conversely, persistent supply disruptions may sustain price consolidation above this key support level, extending volatility into late 2024.
Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties
Crude Oil Week Ahead: 3 Day Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
Oil’s consolidation pattern hints at a potential head-and-shoulders continuation above the 64-support level, but the breakout remains uncertain. The price hovers near the mid-channel trendline within a primary downtrend channel dating back to 2023 highs.
This critical support zone, coupled with geopolitical risks and potential supply disruptions, poses challenges to the downtrend’s continuation.
• Upside Risks: Unless a firm breakout below the 64-support occurs, resistance levels remain at 72.30 and 76, with further extensions to 80 and 84 if the trend persists.
• Downside Risks: A decisive breakout below 64, consistent with the 2025 bearish outlook, could push prices to initial support at 60-58, with a secondary support zone at 49.
— Written by Razan Hilal, CMT – on X: @Rh_waves
Key Events
- Oil ends the second week of November on a bearish note, down nearly 8% from monthly highs
- The IEA forecasts a 2025 surplus exceeding 1 million barrels per day (bpd)
- Chinese economic data remains weak, marking six consecutive months of declining oil consumption
- Global transitions to electric vehicles and renewables further pressure oil demand, with insights expected from Monday’s G20 meetings
- OPEC and IEA reports reinforce bearish oil outlooks for 2025
- Middle East conflicts persist, amplifying supply disruption risks
This image will only appear on cityindex websites!
This image will only appear on forex websites!
Balancing 2024 Upside Risks with 2025 Downside Concerns
As the global energy transition accelerates, declining Chinese oil demand and US fracking deregulations are intensifying bearish pressures on oil prices for 2025. Investors are hedging for both upside and downside risks: call options hedge geopolitical instability and potential supply disruptions in 2024, while put options reflect concerns over 2025 oversupply and lower demand.
OPEC Monthly Report
Highlights For the fourth consecutive month, OPEC has cut its demand growth forecasts, reducing 2024 estimates from 1.93 to 1.82 million bpd and 2025 projections from 1.64 to 1.54 million bpd. Overproduction by Iraq and Russia, alongside weak oil prices, has delayed planned production increases. OPEC’s production quotas will be reviewed during the December 1 meeting, and any quota increases for 2025 could further pressure prices downward.
Middle East Risks
Oil prices remain at a critical juncture, balanced between potential ceasefire agreements and ongoing supply disruption risks. A resolution on the horizon would allow oil to comfortably proceed with its downtrend below its 4-year support at 64. Conversely, persistent supply disruptions may sustain price consolidation above this key support level, extending volatility into late 2024.
Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties
Crude Oil Week Ahead: 3 Day Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
Oil’s consolidation pattern hints at a potential head-and-shoulders continuation above the 64-support level, but the breakout remains uncertain. The price hovers near the mid-channel trendline within a primary downtrend channel dating back to 2023 highs.
This critical support zone, coupled with geopolitical risks and potential supply disruptions, poses challenges to the downtrend’s continuation.
• Upside Risks: Unless a firm breakout below the 64-support occurs, resistance levels remain at 72.30 and 76, with further extensions to 80 and 84 if the trend persists.
• Downside Risks: A decisive breakout below 64, consistent with the 2025 bearish outlook, could push prices to initial support at 60-58, with a secondary support zone at 49.
— Written by Razan Hilal, CMT – on X: @Rh_waves
Related tags:
Latest market news
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Crude Oil Prices Fall, What the U.S. Midterms Mean for Brent
Crude oil prices have pulled back more than 11% from October highs, in line with U.S.-Iran negotiation hopes and shifting U.S. midterm expectations.
Silver, Nasdaq Outlook: Democratic Win Supports Risk-Asset Rebounds
A Democratic win in the U.S. midterm elections is supporting rebounds in risk assets, including precious metals, currency pairs, cryptocurrencies and U.S. indices. This reaction appears to align with changing sentiment around the war and its inflationary impact.
dax-26000-bayer-siemens-energy-sektorrotation-us-zwischenwahlen
The DAX briefly reclaimed the 26,000 level as investors used post-election weakness as an opportunity to rotate into industrial, healthcare and energy-transition leaders. Strong gains in Bayer, Siemens and Siemens Energy helped offset weakness in consumer and AI-related growth stocks. With bond yields easing and the dollar weakening after the US midterm elections, investors are increasingly focusing on earnings quality, visible demand and infrastructure-related growth themes.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.