Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Holding Ground as Risks Linger

Key Events
• Crude oil is holding gains above the 60 mark and near 6-month highs, keeping upside risks on the table, ahead of Wednesday’s NFP report.
• Crude oil option volume, as per the CME, is tilting slightly towards the bullish side as geopolitical uncertainty lingers.
• Gold volatility index aligns with critical support; is another steep move around the corner?

Latest crude inventory reports showed a -3.8m barrel change, the biggest drop since January 2026 and November 2025, in line with the steep winter season. This situation has kept crude prices above the 60 mark, maintaining a neutral to bullish bias on the charts, despite easing tensions in the Middle East over the nuclear talks between the US and Iran.

Geopolitical uncertainty remains in the background of the charts, keeping precious metals also in bullish territory, with gold near 5000 and silver above 80. A chart that stood out to me is the gold volatility index, which pulled back from highs last seen in 2020 to retest a critical zone that was a previous resistance to prices in 2025 and 2022, raising risks for a potential rebound in that volatility.

Gold Volatility Index (GVX) – Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

Translating this caution onto the crude oil chart, which is holding a 2026 bullish bias so far, with the illustrated scenarios below.

Crude Oil Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

From a daily perspective, WTI prices can be seen respecting an up-trending and parallel channel since the lows of 2025, holding a bullish bias for price action across 2026. The latest correction from the 66.50 high coincides with the upper bound of the Dec–Feb channel, and the upper bound of a down-trending channel since Sep 2023, creating a critical resistance zone that can open the way towards a steeper breakthrough in crude prices to the upside, eyeing key levels defined in the weekly chart below.

A short-term resistance level identified on the daily chart before reclaiming the 66 mark is 65. On the downside, a breakdown below the bounds of the channel, below 62.20, can open the path to levels that can still be considered on the bullish end between 61.23 and 60.20. A bearish bias is expected to reassert itself below the 60 mark, targeting 58.70, 56.30, 55, and potentially new lows at 49, last seen in 2020, for dip-buying opportunities.

The mentioned levels can be confirmed on the weekly time frame below, as they align with long-term structural patterns on the chart.

Crude Oil: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

From a weekly angle, the up-trending channel and bias across 2026 span between the mid and upper zones of a channel respected since September 2023, with lower highs and lower lows, marking the previously mentioned 66.50 level as a potential defining barrier between a bullish breakout and bearish continuation. A breakout above this level is expected to extend gains towards 69, 70.40, 74.40, and 80 respectively, defined using the Fibonacci extension tool between the lows of April 2025, the highs of June 2025, and the lows of December 2025.

On the downside, the previously mentioned 55-support, holding price action since the lows of April 2025, aligns with the mid-zone of this channel and can open the way for a steeper drawdown towards the previously mentioned 49 level, which aligns with the lower bound of the respected channel.

Written by Razan Hilal CMT

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