Crypto Technical Analysis: The recovery attempt fails again, even in BTC

With the close of February 2026, the short-term performance of major cryptocurrencies does not reflect a consistent recovery in confidence, but rather a generalized sense of indecision, increasingly visible through neutral price movements.

Although cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin attempted to regain ground toward the $70,000 area, a selling bias re-emerged by the end of the week, maintaining a structurally weak outlook in the short term. As long as prices fail to break key levels, neutrality is likely to continue dominating crypto market fluctuations in the coming sessions.

Performance of major cryptocurrencies

Source: Data - StoneX, Tradingview

• The cryptocurrency showing the greatest weekly weakness was Doge, down approximately -6.98%, positioning it as the most affected in the short term. Meanwhile, Litecoin displayed the strongest relative stability, declining -2.28%, a smaller drop compared to the broader crypto market, suggesting some resilience within the overall bearish context.
   

• Looking at the past ten weeks, the crypto market continues to trade well below levels seen at the end of 2025, maintaining a dominant bearish bias in the medium term. During this period, Solana has fallen -35.72%, while Bitcoin shows a decline of -25.53%, reflecting relatively stronger stability but still under clear selling pressure.
   

• Year-to-date, all major cryptocurrencies remain below their opening prices. Ethereum (-35.54%) and Solana (-34.46%) lead the declines, while Cardano (-17.25%) shows the best relative performance, although it remains in negative territory.
   

• Bitcoin, as the market’s main reference asset, continues to display largely neutral movements. By the weekly close, it posted a variation of approximately $2,400, a moderate figure compared to previous weeks when daily swings exceeded $10,000. The weekly high barely surpassed $70,000, which remains a key psychological barrier, while price ended the week near $65,000, without a clear direction.
   

• Overall, the week was clearly indecisive, with persistent signs of weakness across the crypto market. While some cryptocurrencies attempted to recover part of their losses, these moves were insufficient to reverse the dominant bearish bias of previous weeks and failed to close above weekly opening levels.

Colors from red to green – Red for negative correlations and green for positive correlations.

Source: Data - StoneX, Tradingview

From a correlation perspective, several cryptocurrencies have begun to diverge from Bitcoin’s movements. Correlation coefficients currently fall below 0.6 for assets such as Doge and Cardano, and below 0.9 for Ripple and Litecoin. Correlation coefficients may change over time.

Although correlations remain positive, the strength with which movements replicate across cryptocurrencies has weakened. This suggests that the market is losing synchronization, showing a more mixed behavior: while Bitcoin attempts to maintain stability, some cryptocurrencies display more aggressive weakness.

In this environment, the sense of indecision becomes more pronounced. There is currently no broad-based confidence benefiting the sector as a whole; instead, recovery attempts depend on isolated events in individual cryptocurrencies.

If this loss of correlation and mixed price action persist, a meaningful phase of neutrality could consolidate in the coming sessions, with more moderate fluctuations compared to earlier in the year. Additionally, Bitcoin is not currently leading a confidence-driven move in the broader market, reinforcing indecision as the dominant factor. This scenario could result in prolonged sideways movements and the absence of clear directional trends across the crypto market in the near term.

 

Bitcoin remains trapped in a sideways range

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Although Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within a long-standing downtrend line, the most relevant development in recent weeks has been the consolidation of a range between the $70,000 ceiling and the $60,600 support. Unless price breaks decisively out of this range, it will be difficult to see a more consistent directional move in the coming sessions.

Indicators:

• The RSI remains slightly below the neutral 50 level, reflecting moderate weakness in the average momentum of the past 14 sessions.The MACD histogram remains very close to the zero line, indicating a lack of clear short-term momentum. Both indicators support a scenario of indecision with a mild bearish tone.

Key levels:

• $79,400 – Relevant resistance: Area aligned with the 50-period simple moving average and near the descending trendline. A sustained move toward this level could put the current bearish structure at risk.
   
• $70,677 – Near-term barrier: Upper boundary of the sideways range and close to the 21-period moving average. Without a decisive break above this level, lateral consolidation is likely to persist.
   
• $60,600 – Key support: A level not seen since October 2024. A sustained break below this zone could reactivate the prevailing downtrend and restore dominant selling pressure.

 

Litecoin struggles with its downtrend

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Litecoin has shown stronger relative stability in the short term, but price is approaching its most relevant descending trendline. If selling pressure fails to intensify again, a potential breakout could open the door to greater neutrality and sideways consolidation.

Indicators:

• Both the RSI and MACD remain near their neutral zones (50 and 0, respectively), suggesting balance between buying and selling forces. If this continues, neutrality could become increasingly dominant.

Key levels:

• 62.26 – Key resistance: Level aligned with the 50-period moving average. A sustained breakout above this area could weaken the bearish structure and support a more consistent buying bias.
   
• 54.28 – Near-term barrier: Relevant neutrality zone. Without a decisive move away from this level, a more defined sideways range could develop.
   
• 49.63 – Main support: Level aligned with recent lows. A break below this area could extend short-term selling pressure.

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25