DXY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, Gold, Oil, Bitcoin Weekly Technical Outlook
Sr. Technical Strategist Michael Boutros highlights the levels that matter on the USD Majors and commodity charts into the weekly open.
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Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks
- USD technical trade setups we are tracking this week
- Next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, January 19 at 8:30am ET
- Review the latest Video Updates or Stream Live on my YouTube playlist
In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), and Bitcoin (BTC/USD). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly open.
US Dollar Price Chart – USD 240min (DXY)
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DXY on TradingView
Notes: The Dollar Index is poised to snap a four-day winning streak with DXY turning just ahead of confluent resistance today at 99.27/38- a region defined by the 100% extension of the late-December rally and the 61.8% retracement of the November decline. A 0.6% decline off the monthly high is testing confluent support into the start of the U.S. session at 98.68/76. The immediate focus is on this pivot zone into the start of the week where the 38.2% retracement converges on the August high-day close (HDC) and the May low.
Near-term bullish invalidation is rests with the lower parallel of this pitchfork which converges on the 50% retracement near 98.50. A break / daily close below this threshold would shift the focus back towards yearly open support at 98.24 with key support steady at the 1218 high / 61.8% retracement of the of the September advance at 97.71/81. A topside breach / close above this pivotal resistance is needed to mark uptrend resumption with subsequent resistance eyed at the December high at 99.57 and the 1.618% extension near 99.96.
Bottom line: The US Dollar Index is testing a support into the start of the week, and the focus is on possible inflection off this mark. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to the lower parallel / 98.50 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 99.38 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.
Keep in mind we get the December Consumer Price Index tomorrow and traders will be closely eyeing an update on inflation on the heels of Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close here for guidance.
Oil Price Chart – WTI 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView
Notes: Oil has surged nearly 8.8% off the December lows with the rally now testing key resistance at 59.33/65- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the September decline and the 100% extension of the December rally. Note that the upper parallel of the July downtrend and near-term uptrend resistance converge on this threshold and the focus is on a reaction off this mark in the days ahead.
A topside breach / weekly close above this pivotal resistance would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last month and a larger trend reversal is underway. Such a scenario would expose subsequent topside objectives at the 2025 low-week close (LWC) / September low at 61.43/45 and the 61.8% retracement at 62.03.
Initial support rests with the December open at 58.47 and is backed by the 100% extension of the June decline, the November low, and the May low-close at 56.83-57.21. A break / close below this zone is needed to mark downtrend resumption.
Bottom line: Oil prices are attempting to mark a fourth-consecutive weekly advance with the rally now testing confluent downtrend resistance- risk for exhaustion / price inflection here. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 56.84 IF price is heading for a breakout here with a breach above 59.65 needed to fuel the next leg of the recovery.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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