NFP early insight 1M jobs on tap
The consensus estimate for Friday’s report is 975k net new jobs, which would mark the strongest reading on the US labor market in the last eight months.
Share this:
With bank holidays in the UK, Japan, and China today, it’s not surprising that most major markets have gotten off to a slow start to the trading week. That said, trading activity is likely to pick up sharply as the week rolls on, culminating in Friday’s highly-anticipated release of the April Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Last month, the marquee US jobs report came in at 916K, crushing estimates of 652K net new jobs, and we also saw positive revisions to the previous month’s release. Economists have taken note of the impressive figure, as well as the ongoing rollout of COVID vaccines, and the consensus estimate for Friday’s report is 975k net new jobs, which would mark the strongest reading on the US labor market in the last eight months.
As we saw in last week’s FOMC meeting, the central bank isn’t likely to make any changes to monetary policy any time soon, so this NFP report is unlikely to have an immediate impact on Fed policy. That said, another strong report, especially if accompanied by an uptick in the average hourly earnings figure, could prompt speculators to start buying US assets in anticipation of the Fed removing some of its stimulus down the line.
Stay tuned for our full preview of the NFP report on Wednesday, May 5!
See our complete guide to the Non-Farm Payroll report!
Currency pair to watch during NFP: USD/CAD
The North American pairing tends to be particularly active on NFP Fridays because Canada releases its own monthly jobs report, giving traders multiple high-impact releases to digest. As of writing, USD/CAD remains within its 6-month bearish channel and is currently testing a 4.5-year low near 1.2250:
Source: TradingView, StoneX
With rates extended away from the 50-day EMA, probing this key long-term support level, and the 14-day RSI testing its lowest level of the year, there’s potential for USD/CAD to see at least a short-term bounce if the US jobs report beats expectations and/or the Canadian version of the report comes in soft. Meanwhile, the 1.2250 represents a clear “line in the sand,” so a confirmed break below that level, if seen, could quickly see USD/CAD falling toward 1.2100.
Learn more about forex trading opportunities.
With bank holidays in the UK, Japan, and China today, it’s not surprising that most major markets have gotten off to a slow start to the trading week. That said, trading activity is likely to pick up sharply as the week rolls on, culminating in Friday’s highly-anticipated release of the April Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Last month, the marquee US jobs report came in at 916K, crushing estimates of 652K net new jobs, and we also saw positive revisions to the previous month’s release. Economists have taken note of the impressive figure, as well as the ongoing rollout of COVID vaccines, and the consensus estimate for Friday’s report is 975k net new jobs, which would mark the strongest reading on the US labor market in the last eight months.
As we saw in last week’s FOMC meeting, the central bank isn’t likely to make any changes to monetary policy any time soon, so this NFP report is unlikely to have an immediate impact on Fed policy. That said, another strong report, especially if accompanied by an uptick in the average hourly earnings figure, could prompt speculators to start buying US assets in anticipation of the Fed removing some of its stimulus down the line.
Stay tuned for our full preview of the NFP report on Wednesday, May 5!
See our complete guide to the Non-Farm Payroll report!
Currency pair to watch during NFP: USD/CAD
The North American pairing tends to be particularly active on NFP Fridays because Canada releases its own monthly jobs report, giving traders multiple high-impact releases to digest. As of writing, USD/CAD remains within its 6-month bearish channel and is currently testing a 4.5-year low near 1.2250:
Source: TradingView, StoneX
With rates extended away from the 50-day EMA, probing this key long-term support level, and the 14-day RSI testing its lowest level of the year, there’s potential for USD/CAD to see at least a short-term bounce if the US jobs report beats expectations and/or the Canadian version of the report comes in soft. Meanwhile, the 1.2250 represents a clear “line in the sand,” so a confirmed break below that level, if seen, could quickly see USD/CAD falling toward 1.2100.
Learn more about forex trading opportunities.
Related tags:
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
AUD/USD outlook: Aussie slips despite hawkish RBA ahead of key data
The AUD/USD was unable to benefit from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 25-basis-point rate hike overnight. The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.60%, in line with expectations. However, the Australian dollar weakened following the decision, with much of the Bank’s hawkish stance seemingly priced in ahead of the announcement. The US dollar has also remained largely supported following the recent turmoil in the bond markets.
RBA delivers 25bp hike, Bullock now the main event
The RBA delivered the expected 25bp hike, but Bullock’s press conference now looms as the bigger volatility risk for AUD/USD and the ASX 200.
Gold outlook: XAU/USD hammered, stretched and vulnerable to a sharp rebound
Gold is getting hammered for solid fundamental reasons, but history suggests extreme four-hourly oversold conditions can produce violent countertrend rallies.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.