Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Rally Threatens Reversal
USD/CHF surged more than 3.5% off the yearly low with the post-Fed rally now threatening a larger reversal in trend. Battle lines drawn on the weekly technical chart.
Share this:
Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels
- USD/CHF surges more than 3.5% off yearly low- FOMC rally breaks out of July range
- USD/CHF bulls look to secure close above 8100- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap into monthly cross
- Resistance 8222/45, 8300, 8380/8416 (key)- Support 8040 (key), 7946, 7882
USD/CHF ripped through the July range yesterday with the Fed-induced rally now threatening the yearly downtrend. The focus is on this week’s close with key U.S. employment data on tap into the August open. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Technical Forecast we noted that that USD/CHF was testing downtrend support and that the, “immediate focus is on this week’s close with respect to 8040- keep an eye on weekly momentum with RSI currently trading just above the oversold barrier. From at trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 8103 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below trend support needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” Price broke lower into the close that week with USD/CHF plunging more than 4.5% off the June highs.
The decline rebounded off technical support into the July-open with the monthly range taking shape just above the 1.618% extension of the May decline at 7882. The opening range broke to the topside on the heels of yesterday’s FOMC rate decision and takes USD/CHF back above the 25% parallel- a weekly close back above the April lows at 8040 tomorrow would suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger reversal is underway. Look for initial support near 8103 today for guidance.
Initial topside resistance objectives eyed at the 1.618% extension of the monthly advance and the 61.8% retracement of the May decline at 8222/46 backed by the median line, currently near the 83-handle. Key lateral resistance stands at 8380-8416- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range, the 2024 low-close, the 2023 low-week close (LWC) and the 2024 yearly open (an area of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached).
Support rests at the yearly LWC at 7946 with a break / close below 7881 needed to mark resumption of the broader multi-year downtrend. Subsequent support objectives seen at the 2011 LWC at 7769 and the 2011 low-close at 7669.
Bottom line: USD/CHF is threatening a larger reversal within the broader downtrend. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 8040 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with weekly close above 8103 on Friday needed to keep the immediate advance viable into the August open.
Keep in mind we get the release of Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow into the monthly cross. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close / August opening-range for guidance here. Review my latest Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.
USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Weekly Technical Charts
- Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
- Gold (XAU/USD)
- Euro (EUR/USD)
- US Dollar Index (DXY)
- British Pound (GBP/USD)
- S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow
- Crude Oil (WTI)
- Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
- Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Forecast: Nasdaq Selloff Deepens as Dow Rally Stalls 10 24 2026
A failed S&P breakout and looming Nasdaq support test raise the stakes for next week’s Fed decision and October’s monthly close.
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: AI earnings could overshadow the Fed and BoJ
AI sentiment has become a major driver of US Treasury yields and USD/JPY. With Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon reporting this week, central bank decisions may have competition for traders' attention.
Silver forecast: metals liquidation drags XAG/USD into $50-55 support
Silver has broken its July low and slipped into a long-term support zone as the selling in precious metals deepens. The chart shows where the metal could bottom, and next week's Fed decision may decide whether it does.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.