Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Rejected at Resistance
The US Dollar slide is accelerating with the USD/CHF bears now poised to ease the monthly advance. Battle lines drawn on the short-term Swiss Franc technical charts.
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Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Short-term Trade Levels
- USD/CHF monthly rally fails at technical resistance- reversal now poised to mark third consecutive day
- USD/CHF support in view- bears threaten resumption of yearly downtrend
- Resistance 7991, 8018 (key), 8060- Support 7931/45, 7872/82 (key), 7779
The US Dollar remains on the defensive early in the week with USD/CHF attempting to mark a third consecutive daily decline. A break of a multi-week uptrend now threatens resumption of the broader downtrend as the bears attempt to unwind the July advance. Battles lines drawn on the USD/CHF short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook we noted that USD/CHF had rebounded off technical support and that, “From a trading standpoint, the threat remains for a larger recovery within the broader downtrend, but rallies should be limited to 8103 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 7881 needed to mark downtrend resumption.” USD/CHF rallied more than 2.4% off the monthly lows before exhausting into channel resistance last week at the 100% extension of the May decline near 8060. Price is now poised to mark a third consecutive daily decline with USD/CHF attempting to break below the July uptrend- watch today’s close.
Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Swisse price action shows USD/CHF slipping below the 38.2% retracement of the monthly range at 7991 and a break below the monthly channel threatens a larger decline while below the weekly open at 8018.
Initial support rests with the July open / 61.8% retracement at 7931/45 and is backed by the yearly low / 1.618% extension at 7872/82- losses below this threshold would threaten another bout of accelerated losses with the next technical considerations seen at the 78.6% retracement of the 2011 advance at 7779 and the highlighted trendline confluence near 7700.
Bottom line: A reversal from technical resistance is now attempting to break the July advance and threatens resumption of the broader USD/CHF downtrend. From at trading standpoint, look for a reaction into monthly open support- rallies should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 7872 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline. Review my latest Swiss Franc Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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