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Gold fell 1.8% last week and is now down for a third consecutive week, suggesting that momentum continues to fade following the powerful surge we saw in August. On Friday, the precious metal initially fell in reaction to the US CPI data but then rallied sharply from its lows immediately afterwards in a classic “sell the news” reaction, before fading into the close. Ultimately, gold finished Friday’s session 0.7% higher.
Gold has reversed sharply into major support, with a decline of nearly 9% setting up the first meaningful test of the August breakout.
The true test of trend is what happens after a counter-trend jolt, and that’s where gold as into next week as the overbought trend has just moderated with the largest daily sell-off in two months.
Gold prices continued to jump last week and with the US Treasury playing defense in a debt spiral situation it seems unlikely that austerity and fiscal prudence will enter the equation.
Gold has reached a pivotal resistance zone that could determine whether the monthly breakout has further to run. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD charts.
Bond yields pushed higher again on Friday as the consolidation near the upper end of the recent range continued, mirroring the price action of oil prices, posing threat to the gold recovery attempt.
Gold just posted its best week since January, but the breakout now enters the phase that could determine whether a lasting low is finally in place.
Gold has spent six weeks trapped in a tightening range at the yearly low, with the next breakout likely to determine the August outlook.
Gold managed to bounce a bit on Friday, although it was too little to prevent a weekly decline. On the week, the metal fell 2.5%, making its second consecutive weekly decline. Though gold again managed to hold its own above the key $4,000 level on a daily and weekly closing basis, the metal was now flat on the month.
Repeated breakdown attempts have failed as gold traders await the inflation catalyst that could finally resolve this month-long battle in XAU/USD.
With the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook under the new chairman supporting the dollar, this has been among the reasons why gold has fallen in recent weeks. That’s not to mention the impact of fading haven demand amid the de-escalation of the Middle East tensions, and the loss of prior speculative bullish moment.
A failed breakdown below yearly support is raising the possibility that an exhaustion low is taking shape. PCE data next week could be the catalyst.
Gold closed lower for the second consecutive week on Friday, although it finished the week well off its lows after rebounding on Thursday and holding on to some of those gains during Friday’s consolidation.
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