US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report Preview (FEB 2025)
The US is expected to add 160K jobs in February, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.0% during the same period.
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US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a 143K rise in January versus forecasts for a 170K print, while Average Hourly Earnings unexpectedly climbed to 4.1% from 3.9% during the same period.
US Economic Calendar – February 7, 2025
A deeper look at the report showed the Unemployment Rate narrowing to 4.0% from 4.1% in December even as the Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.6% from 62.5% during the same period.
The update from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that ‘job gains occurred in health care, retail trade, and social assistance,’ with the report going onto say that the ‘change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up by 49,000, from +212,000 to +261,000, and the change for December was revised up by 51,000, from +256,000 to +307,000.’
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EUR/USD Chart – 15 Minute
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
The US Dollar showed a mixed reaction to the NFP report, with EUR/USD pulling back from a fresh daily high (1.0412) to close the week at 1.0327. The weakness in EUR/USD was short-lived as it retraced the decline following the NFP to end the following week at 1.0492.
Looking ahead, the US is expected to add 160K jobs in February, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.0% during the same period.
With that said, signs of a resilient labor market may generate a bullish reaction in the US Dollar as it raises the Federal Reserve’s scope to keep US interest rates on hold, but a weaker-than-expected NFP report may produce headwinds for the Greenback as it fuels speculation for an imminent Fed rate-cut.
Additional Market Outlooks
GBP/USD Eyes December High as Ascending Channel Remains Intact
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Rally Persists with Trump Tariffs on Track
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Vulnerable to ECB Rate Cut
US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY Rebound Retrained by Slowdown in US PCE
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
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